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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 4

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST SUN JUL 05 2015

...NANGKA TO IMPACT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 6:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...10.9N, 168.9E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: ZERO

ABOUT 800 MI...1,280 KM ENE OF PALIKIR, MICRONESIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 10 KT...11 MPH...19 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 6:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Nangka was situated near 10.9N, 168.9E, or about 800 miles (1,280 kilometers) east-northeast of Palikir, Micronesia. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1000 millibars (hPa; 29.53 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 10 knots (11 mph, 19 km/h). While conditions favor development in the short-term, upper-level conditions are expected to degrade somewhat as Nangka tracks west-northwestward.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at X:00 pm JST.

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Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST SUN JUL 05 2015

Tropical Storm Nangka has become slightly better organized over the last few hours. However, the cloud tops ar enot as cool as I would like. In all, Nangka has a decent structure to it, and some future. CI laues from CIMSS-ADT support a wind speed of T3.0./45 knts, while an estimate from the JMA supports T2.5/3 knts. A deal between the two estimates favor a 40 knt system.

Nangka is currently moving steadily towards the west-northwest as it is currently being steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north over the next several days. The new forecast track lies a little north than the previous to account for the new center fix. Although Nangka is not currently a well organized system, Nangka is currently in a favorable upper-level environment characterized by low wind shear, as well has favorable (but due to the El Nino event below normal) ocean waters characterized by modest sea temperatures and high oceanic heat content. This should allow for some steady strengthening in the short term. However, atmospheric conditions in the long-term are expected to worsen, at least slightly, as Nangka paces northwestward, but may improve towards the end of the forecast range. Despite this, the GFS and HWRF continue to project an intense typhoon at the end of the five day range, while the ECMWF does not. Given that the ECMWF is better outside of the deep tropics, the below forecast favors the GFS and HWRF and is a bit more steady and higher than the previous package.


INIT 04/0900Z 10.9N 168.9E 40 KT 45 MPH ... NEAR MARSHALL ISLANDS

12H 04/1800Z 11.1N, 165.6W 45 KT 50 MPH ... NEAR MARSHALL ISLANDS

24H 05/0600Z 11.3N 163.3E 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 05/1800Z 11.8N 160.5E 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 06/0600Z 12.8N 158.4E 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 07/0600Z 14.2N 155.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 08/0600Z 16.4N 151.4E 80 KT 90 MPH

120H 09/0600Z 18.2N 147.3E 90 KT 105 MPH ... NEAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

$$

Forecaster YE

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