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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST SUN JUL 05 2015

...NANGKA SPUTTERING NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...10.5N, 169.3E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ... ± 20 MI... 35 KM

ABOUT 800 MI...1,280 KM ENE OF PALIKIR, MICRONESIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 10 KT...11 MPH...19 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Nangka was situated near 10.5N, 169.3E, or about 800 miles (1,280 kilometers) east-northeast of Palikir, Micronesia. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1000 millibars (hPa; 29.53 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 10 knots (11 mph, 19 km/h). While conditions favor development in the short-term, upper-level conditions are expected to degrade as Nangka tracks west-northwestward.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 06:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST SUN JUL 05 2015

Nangka has not changed much in appearance over the last six hours, and if anything, the overall convective strucutre has slightly degraded. Nangka continues to maintain the disorganized curved band it has possessed throughout the band, though very little in the way of organized convection is occuring at the center. In fact, despite generally low shear values, the center has become somewhat exposed. Elsewhere, a 2238z AMSU microwave pass revealed that the deep estconvection isolated in localized pockets within the band. An ASCAT pass from 22z indicated a large swath of 30-35 knot winds north of the center, and CIMSS-ADT suggested an intensity of 37 kt. Subjective intensity estimates from SAB were at T0.0/40kt Thus, the intensity for this advisory based on the estimate and scatterometer readings will remain at 40 knots, indicating that Nangka has not strengthened despite the otherwise favorable atmospheric conditions that it currently lies in.

Nangka is currently moving steadily towards the west-northwest as it is currently being steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. The future track of Nangka is expected to be fairly straightfoward as the ridge is anticipated to be the dominant player in steering the tropical cyclone. As a result, models have come into agreement that Nangka will move at a steady pace towards the west or west-northwest over the next five days, perhaps curving slighty further northwestward as time progresses. The WHFC forecast track lies at the consensus of the models, which makes sense as there does not appear to be any other major steering factors.

Although Nangka is not currently a well organized system, Nangka is currently in a favorable upper-level environment characterized by wind shear below 10 knots as analyzed by CIMSS, as well has favorable ocean waters characterized by modest sea temperatures and high oceanic heat content. This should allow for some steady strengthening in the short term. However, atmospheric conditions in the long-term are expected to worsen, at least slightly, as Nangka paces northwestward, but may improve towards the end of the forecast range. Despite this, the GFS and HWRF continue to project an intense typhoon at the end of the five day range. As a result, the new WHFC forecast is slightly raised from the last advisory but will err on the side of caution given the potential for unfavorable conditions.


INIT 04/0300Z 10.5N 169.3E 40 KT 45 MPH ... NEAR MARSHALL ISLANDS

12H 04/1200Z 10.8N, 168.0W 45 KT 50 MPH ... NEAR MARSHALL ISLANDS

24H 05/0000Z 11.1N 164.9E 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 05/1200Z 11.8N 161.8E 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 06/0000Z 12.8N 159.0E 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 07/0000Z 14.2N 156.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

96H 08/0000Z 16.4N 152.4E 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 09/0000Z 18.2N 148.1E 80 KT 90 MPH ... NEAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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