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Public advisoryEdit

TYPHOON NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 22

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST THU JUL 09 2015

...NANGKA MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT SUPER TYPHOON STATUS...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...16.5N 148.3E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ENE OF SAIPAN, MARIANA ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 KT...140 MPH...225 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 10 KT...12 MPH...19 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Typhoon Nangka was situated near 16.5N 148.3E, or about 295 miles (495 km) east-northeast of Saipan, Mariana Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 120 knots (140 mph, 225 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 928 millibars (hPa; 27.40 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 10 knots (12 mph, 19 km/h). Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 48 hours as Nangka approaches the Mariana Islands.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TYPHOON NANGKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST THU JUL 09 2015

Over the last 12 hours, Nangka has recovered a bit. The typhoon has become more symmetrical and better organized and it appears wind shear is not affecting it. While the eye has not warmed much, it has become more circular and distinct. A nice ring of cloud tops colder than -75C (or CMG on Dvorak IR) has developed, which are colder than the cloud tops observed at its peak the other day. However, the eye is around -20C right now and the warmest its been its entire life is -13C. This corresponds to OW status on the Dvorak IR images. However, the convection in general it more expansive than it was yesterday while a solid (below -70C) ring of W or greater on Dvorak IR wrapping around .5 of a degree in the north and west side and even larger on the south and east sides.


As you can imagine, Dvorak estimates are high than they were 12 hours ago. At 143z, the JTWC gave this system a conservative T6.0/115 knts, while WFHC and SAB gave this a T6.5/127 knts. UW-CIMSS ADT is at T6.0/115 knts, while raw and adjusted values of T6.1/117.4 knts. JMA ADT is at T6.3/121 knts and JTWC ADT is at T6/2/119 knts; both hae slightly higher raw and adjusted values. Although I would go 125 knts because that is what the above best supports, given the fact that the eye is not warm enough for my liking, 120 knts is good.


Based on improved presentation, Nangka is likely undergoing less shear than 12 hours ago. However, WV imagery suggests that some may be affecting it, though outflow is slowly but surely improving. Based on recent trends, and the fact that upper-trough to the north is likely to weaken, some more deepening is expected over the next 12 to 36 hours. While only slow strengthening is shown below and the new forecast does not explicitly bring this to Category 5 status, if the eye warms, it could do so in a few hours.

After 36 hours, slow weakening is expected due to the above upper-level trough, not to mention the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles during this time. Towards the end of the period, some re-intensification is expected again due to decreased shear.


Nangka continues to travel steadily west-northwest, steered by a mid-level ridge across the northern West Pacific. The approach of the upper-level trough in approximately 48 hours is expected to erode the western extent of this anticyclone and force the typhoon on a more poleward track. The updated track forecast is meterly from the previous one. Nangka is expected to approach the northern Mariana Islands in about 24 hours, and residents there should be preparing for potentially life-threatening conditions.

INIT 08/1500Z 16.5N 148.3E 120 KT 140 MPH

12H 09/0000Z 17.2N 146.5E 130 KT 150 MPH

24H 09/1200Z 17.9N 144.9E 135 KT 155 MPH

36H 10/0000Z 18.6N 143.3E 135 KT 155 MPH.

48H 10/1200Z 19.2N 142.2E 130 KT 150 MPH

72H 11/1200Z 20.4N 141.1E 120 KT 140 MPH

96H 12/1200Z 22.0N 140.8E 110 KT 125 MPH

120H 13/1200Z 23.6N 140.4E 125 KT 145 MPH

$$

Forecaster YE

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