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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 9

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST SAT JUL 04 2015

...LINFA IS BORING...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...16.0N, 124.2E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: ZERO

ABOUT 240 MI ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 13 KT...14 MPH...24 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 16.0N, 124.2E, or about 240 miles east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 991 millibars (hPa; 29.27 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking northwest at 13 knots (14 mph, 24 km/h). The upper-level environment ahead of Linfa is expected to continue providing favorable conditions for gradual development as this storm tracks towards Luzon.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST SAT JUL 04 2015

While Linfa is producing quite cold cloud tops, likely due to the warm waters and sub-surface, Linfa has not become any better organized. Given that CI estimates from SAB/JTWC have not changed much, the intensity remains 50 knts, a bit below a CIMMS ADT of T3.4/53 kt and a raw value of T3.8/61 knts.

Despite extremely warm sea surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content, Linfa is being impacted by 20-30 knot wind shear, which has kept big time intensification in check. Wind shear is not expected to taper off and if anything, the shear could increase. As such, the new intesify forecasts calls for very little intensification in the short-term, even though the HWRF and CMC calls for quite a big of deepening. The tropical system is currently expected to track towards Luzon as the storm lies on the western periphery of a dominant subtropical ridge centered over the western Pacific. After 36 hours, weakening should occur as the system interacts with land. Afterwards, a trough pacing over East Asia is expected to cause Linfa to curve northward. Atmospheric conditions at this point remain ambiguous, but with COAMPS guidance indicating a drop in wind shear to values around 10 knots, some strengthening can be expected, but the forecast below assumes that the core will not be disrupted and Chan-hom will not eat this tropical cyclone.

INIT 04/0300Z 16.0N 124.2E 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 04/1200Z 16.3N 123.9E 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 123.3E 60 KT 70 MPH ... NEAR LUZON

36H 05/1200Z 18.2N 122.4E 55 KT 65 MPH ... NEAR LUZON

48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 121.9E 45 KT 50 MPH

72H 06/1200Z 20.0N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 07/0000Z 21.4N 122.6E 55 KT 65 MPH

120H 08/0000Z 22.7N 123.6E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$

Forecaster YE

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