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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

06:00 AM JST SAT JUL 04 2015

...LINFA MOVING TOWARDS LUZON...

SUMMARY OF 06:00 AM JST...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...16.0N, 124.8E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: LOW ... ± 45 MI... 75 KM

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 13 KT...14 MPH...24 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 06:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 16.0N, 124.8E, or about 270 miles (435 kilometers) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 991 millibars (hPa; 29.27 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking northwest at 13 knots (14 mph, 24 km/h). The upper-level environment ahead of Linfa is expected to continue providing favorable conditions for gradual development as this storm tracks towards Luzon.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

06:00 AM JST SAT JUL 04 2015

Linfa has organized slightly since the last advisory, with cold cloud tops as cold as -80C blossoming near the center once again. A large mass of convection is currently blanketing much of the Bicol Peninsula and surrounding areas, with Philippine radar showing the heaviest rains falling across around Gumaca. Continued progression of this convection over the area can lead to widespread flooding and mudslides. Rainbands also appear to be firing to the west of Linfa. A 13z ASCAT pass revealed that Linfa only possessed 45 knot winds, and microwave imagery showed that the system was rather disorganized about the center. In addition, the final CIMSS ADT value for the system was T2.7/39kt. However, given the potential for undersampling on ASCAT and a raw t-value of T3.2 from CIMSS, the intensity for Linfa this advisory has been set at 50 knots, though this may be a bit generous.

Despite extremly warm sea surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content, Linfa is being impacted by 20-30 knot wind shear, which has kept intensification in check and has nearly made the center of circulation exposed at times overnight. Wind shear is not expected to taper off and is intead expected to intensify; in fact, COAMPS guidance indicates that shear is expected to increase to as much as 30 knots over Linfa. The tropical system is currently expected to track towards Luzon as the storm lies on the western periphery of a dominant subtropical ridge centered over the western Pacific. As a result of favorable ocean waters combined with unfavorable upper-air environment, the WHFC continues to anticipate slow intensification up to a potential Luzon landfall or pass, though some models, including the HWRF and CMC, continue to indicate a much stronger system. Weakening should occur as the system interacts with land. Afterwards, a trough pacing over East Asia is expected to cause Linfa to curve northward. Atmospheric conditions at this point remain ambiguous, but with COAMPS guidance indicating a drop in wind shear to values around 10 knots, some strengthening can be expected; however, long-range intensity is highly dependent on how much Linfa weakens as a result of interaction with Luzon.

INIT 03/2100Z 16.0N 124.8E 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 04/0600Z 16.7N 124.0E 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 04/1800Z 17.3N 123.7E 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 05/0600Z 17.8N 122.9E 65 KT 75 MPH ... NEAR LUZON

48H 05/1800Z 18.6N 121.9E 45 KT 50 MPH ... ENTERING LUZON STRAIT

72H 06/1800Z 19.7N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.4E 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 08/1800Z 22.5N 122.9E 55 KT 65 MPH

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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