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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 7

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST SAT JUL 04 2015

...LINFA COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...15.3N 125.8E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: VERY VERY VERY LOW

ABOUT 300 MI...550 KM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...988 MB...29.47 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---------------------------------------------

At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 15.3N 125.8E, or about 350 miles (550 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 998 millibars (hPa; 29.47 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h). Atmospheric conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for slow development as this system tracks slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the next few days, and Linfa could become a typhoon tonight. Linfa is expected to begin weakening as it executes a turn toward the northeast at the end of the forecast period.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST FRI JUL 03 2015

Convection associated with Linfa has rapidly diminished in coverage. However, since banding features and thus Dvorak intensity estimates ave not diminished, the intensity remains a generous 55 knts. It also appears that the center may have been further south than previously estimated. The track and intensity forecasts remain largely unchanged, though due to the recent arrested development, the intensity forecast has been tweaked in the short-term and now only brings the storm to 70 knts. Weakening is expected after 36 hours due to increased shear from Chan-Hom and land interaction.

INIT 03/1500Z 15.3N 125.8E 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 04/0000Z 16.1N 125.5E 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 04/1200Z 17.2N 125.1E 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 05/0000Z 17.5N 124.5E 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 05/1200Z 17.6N 123.8E 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR LUZON

72H 06/1200Z 18.6N 121.0E 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR OR OVER LUZON

96H 07/1200Z 19.7N 120.8E 40 KT 45 MPH

120H 08/1200Z 22.1N 122.4E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$

Forecaster YE

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