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Public advisoryEdit

TYPHOON LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 25

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST WED JUL 08 2015

...SMALL LINFA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2-EQUIVALENT AS IT CURVES TOWARDS CHINA...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...22.4N, 118.2E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ... ± 10 MI... 20 KM

ABOUT 115 MI... 185 KM SE OF SHANTOU, CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 KT...100 MPH...160 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Typhoon Linfa was situated near 22.4N, 118.2E, or about 115 miles (185 kilometers) southeast of Shantou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 965 millibars (hPa; 29.50 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Linfa is expected to slowly track towards the north and then curve westward, striking what will most likely be astern Guangdong. During the next two days, conditions are expected to be favorable for for some marginal strengthening. Linfa is set to make landfall later today on eastern Guangdong, and Linfa may strengthen further during the short time it has over water. After landfall, Linfa is expected to turn towards the west and weaken.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TYPHOON LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST WED JUL 08 2015

Linfa has steadily organized since the last adivsory, with continuous streams of convection about the central dense overcast helping to shape the typhoon into a more rounder shape. As a result of this process, Linfa is now a much more symmetric system. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry air has entered into the center, most likely tapping in from the large amount of dry air over China, but microwave imagery, including a 1108z SSMIS pass and 1326z AMSU pass, suggests that this dry air has not, at least yet, disrupted the center. Linfa continues to maintain well established outflow, and rainbands continue to develop in the moist South China Sea. An eye is clearly evident in microwave imagery and has at times hinted itself on visible and infrared channels during the afternoon and evening hours; should the eye clear itself out, it would be rather large relative to the small size of Linfa. Satellite intensity estimates have ramped up considerably since the last advisory, with SSMIS at 96 knots and SATCON at 92 knots. CIMSS ADT is currently at T4.7/82kt. The WHFC advisory intensity has been set at 85 knots as it appears that despite the microwave eyewall, there isn't truly a ring of deep convection to be noted on infrared imagery.

While Linfa is still expected to travel west-northwestward and curve into the Chinese coast as the dominant steering factors are still in play, models have been shifting further west and south, which introduces a potential scenario where Linfa does not make a classic landfall and instead brushes the coast into Hong Kong before potentially recurving back into the South China Sea. Regardless, land interaction and cooler offshore waters are expected to weaken the storm, and shear is expected to increase. Seeing as Linfa has been able to utilize the atmospheric environment to strengthen quite considerably, Linfa should be able to strengthen to a peak later today before it begins scraping the coast, where it will steadily lose its intensity before recurving out to around Hainan. Although this places it back over warmer waters again and gives it the potential to reinvigorate itself, continued land interaction is expected to continue disrupting the center sufficiently enough to disallow immediate redevelopment.


INIT 08/1500Z 22.4N 118.2E 85 KT 100 MPH

... PEAK INTENSITY OCCURING AROUND THIS TIME...

... A NUMBER OF LANDFALLS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST COULD OCCUR FOLLOWING THIS POINT...

12H 09/0000Z 22.8N 116.9E 85 KT 100 MPH ... NEAR CHINA [SHANTOU]

24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 115.7E 65 KT 75 MPH ... NEAR CHINA [SHANWEI]

36H 10/0000Z 22.3N 114.1E 45 KT 50 MPH ... NEAR CHINA [HONG KONG]

48H 10/1200Z 21.3N 111.8E 35 KT 40 MPH ... NEAR CHINA [YANGJIANG]

72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 114.4E 30 KT 35 MPH ... NEAR HAINAN

96H 12/1200Z 19.0N 111.5E 20 KT 25 MPH ... NEAR HAINAN/REMNANT LOW

120H 13/1200Z ... DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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