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Public advisoryEdit

TYPHOON LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 24

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST WED JUL 08 2015

...TINY TYPHOON LINFA STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...21.6N 118.4E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF SHANTOU, CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 KT...80 MPH...130 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 3 KT...4 MPH...6 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Typhoon Linfa was situated near 21.6N 118.4E, or about 165 miles (265 km) southeast of Shantou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 972 millibars (hPa; 28.71 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking north-northwest at 3 knots (4 mph, 6 km/h). Additional intensification is possible over the next 12 hours or so, but cooler shelf waters are expected to hinder organization as Linfa approaches the coastline of eastern China in approximately 24 hours. Dissipation is forecast by the end of day 2.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TYPHOON LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST WED JUL 08 2015

Linfa is stronger this afternoon. Deep convection has increased in both coverage and intensity over the past few hours, especially within the western semicircle. A small eye has been evident on infrared imagery intermittently, hindered by the presence of some mid-level dry air in the eastern reaches of the inner core. Satellite intensity estimates, which have continually lagged the actual strength of the cyclone, were T3.0/45kt from JTWC, T3.2/49kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and T4.0/65kt from SAB. However, based on the improved structure of the typhoon, the initial intensity has been increased to 70kt.

Linfa has begun its well forecast turn toward the north-northwest as a result of the western extension of the subtropical ridge across the northern West Pacific. On this trajectory, the cyclone has approximately 24 hours left over water. During that time, wind shear is expected to remain low and sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warm, at least until the system approaches the coastline. As such, the opportunity exists for slight development. After 24 hours, once Linfa moves ashore and is directed south-southwestward parallel to the shoreline, quick weakening is expected. The cyclone is expected to dissipate within 48 hours.

INIT 08/0300Z 21.6N 118.4E 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 08/1200Z 22.5N 118.0E 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 09/0000Z 23.4N 116.6E 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

36H 09/1200Z 23.0N 113.2E 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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