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Public advisoryEdit

TYPHOON LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 21

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST WED JUL 08 2015

...LINFA MAINTAINING TYPHOON INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...20.9N, 118.6E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ... ± 20 MI... 30 KM

ABOUT 210 MI... 330 KM SE OF SHANTOU, CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 2 KT...2 MPH...4 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Typhoon Linfa was situated near 20.9N, 118.6E, or about 210 miles (330 kilometers) southeast of Shantou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 977 millibars (hPa; 29.85 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking north at 2 knots (2 mph, 4 km/h). Linfa is expected to slowly track towards the north and then curve westward, striking what will most likely be astern Guangdong. During the next two days, conditions are expected to be favorable for for some marginal strengthening.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TYPHOON LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST WED JUL 08 2015

After undergoing an impressive bout of intensification during the daylight hours, Linfa appears to have stabilized in terms of strength. Linfa appears to be attempting to organize into a more compact system as the large CDO from earlier has transitioned into a small area of deepconvection near the center of the storm. Continued rainbanding is evident in the southern portion of the storm, and there are additional attempts at developing rainbands to the northeast of the center. A 1120z SSMIS microwave pass revealed that Linfa's convection managed to wrap around the center in a comma-shaped fashion, though the inner eyewall appears to be only halfway complete. Although Linfa appears to be slightly less organized on infrared than it was six hours ago, the latest microwave images indicate that the internal structure remains sound; thus, the intensity at this advisory remains at 65 knot, though this may be a bit generous.

Global and storm forecast models are more in agreement now as to where Linfa will end up in the next two or so days. Linfa is currently expected to continue drifting north as the influence of the subtropical ridge diminishes before curving westward as the result of a segment of a progressing trough splitting off and pushing southward. This will bring Linfa into China, and model forecasts have narrowed down Linfa's landfall to a roughly 200 mile long stretch of coast from Shanwei, Guangdong to Xiamen, Fujian. The current WHFC forecast lies slightly weighted towards Shanwei, which should bring Linfa onto the coast sometime in the next two days.

Linfa currently lies in an area of 10-20 knot shear, and, because the shear vector has been towards the north, this may have helped place the convection over the center earlier. However, shear is expected to increase as Linfa heads towards China, which will likely cap Linfa's intensification. Sea surface temperatures are also expected to drop to marginal levels, and, compounded with land interaction, should help to weaken the tropical system as it tracks onto the Chinese coast. The current WHFC forecast anticipates more or less a steady state before some weakening occurs at landfall.


INIT 07/1500Z 20.9N 118.6E 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 08/0000Z 21.8N 118.4E 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 08/1200Z 22.6N 117.8E 65 KT 75 MPH ... NEAR CHINA

36H 09/0000Z 23.2N 116.7E 60 KT 70 MPH ... AT LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA

48H 09/1200Z 23.4N 115.0E 35 KT 40 MPH ... INLAND

72H 10/1200Z 22.7N 112.5E 25 KT 30 MPH ... REMNANT LOW

96H 11/1200Z ... DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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