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Public advisoryEdit

TYPHOON LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 21

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

06:00 PM JST WED JUL 07 2015

...LINFA NOW A TYPHOON....

SUMMARY OF 06:00 PM JST...09:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...20.7N 118.6E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF PINGTUNG, TAIWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 2 KT...3 MPH...5 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Typhoon Linfa was situated near 20.7N 118.6E, or about 175 miles (280 km) southwest of Pingtung, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 975 millibars (hPa; 28.80 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 2 knots (3 mph, 5 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to favor intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours, but quick weakening is expected thereafter as Linfa moves into the China mainland.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

TYPHOON LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

Linfa continues to organize this evening. Although infrared satellite indicates that the intense convection over Linfa has decreased in the past 6 hours quite significantly, strong spiral banding is revealed and an eye may be hinting itself through the clouds. Satellite intensity estimates continue to be significantly below where they should be and the storm has been upgraded to a hurricane-equivalent strength typhoon.

Typhoon Linfa continues to meander slowly on a northwesterly path. Model guidance continues to take Linfa on a northerly path which should resume shortly and occur for the next 24 to 48 hours before the system begins to feel the effects of a weak upper level low located to its northwest. Linfa's path will shift and take on a more westerly component as it tracks close to the coastline. At around 2 to 3 days Linfa's track will be influenced by the ridge extending west into northeastern China and Typhoon Chan-hom which may well bring a weak and dissipating Linfa back over the South China Sea, though it will not re-intensify.

Shear remains low over Linfa and conditions in general are favorable for some level of intensification for a bit less than the next 48 hours. Beyond this, Linfa is expected to make landfall and weaken rapidly. Regardless of exact intensity, rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China over the coming days.

INIT 07/0900Z 20.7N 118.6E 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 118.4E 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 08/0600Z 22.4N 118.1E 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 08/1800Z 23.0N 117.6E 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 116.9E 65 KT 75 MPH...LANDFALL

72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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