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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

...LINFA JUST UNDER TYPHOON INTENSITY SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN....

SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...20.6N 118.8E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: LOW

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF PINGTUNG, TAIWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 KT...70 MPH...110 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 2 KT...3 MPH...5 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 20.6N 118.8E, or about 175 miles (280 km) southwest of Pingtung, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 978 millibars (hPa; 28.88 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking northwest at 2 knots (3 mph, 5 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to favor intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours, but quick weakening is expected thereafter as Linfa moves into the China mainland.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

Linfa has become quite well organized this afternoon. Visible satellite animations reveal a uniform central dense overcast atop the low-level circulation, with increasing spiral banding across the southern semicircle. Although recent satellite intensity estimates were a meek T3.0/45kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, T3.0/45kt from JTWC, and T3.5/55kt from SAB, the initial intensity has been upped to 60kt based on the improved structure.

Linfa has tracked northwestward this afternoon, likely feeling the localized influence of nearby, persistent deep convection. Since the cyclone is located within a col region, some deviation in trajectory is expected over the coming days, but the cyclone should turn back toward the north over the coming hours. By 48 hours and beyond, a westward extension of the ridge across the West Pacific, as well as the continued presence of the upper-level trough that should detach into an upper-level low across eastern China, is expected to direct Linfa on a more north-northwest track into the China mainland. Once inland, the low-level circulation of the system should track westward and quickly dissipate.

After enduring a high 20 to 30 knots of wind shear yesterday, upper-level winds have lessened to a low 5 to 10 knots atop the cyclone as an anticyclone becomes established. Coupled with sea surface temperatures of 28-30C, an adequately moist mid-level environment, and a generally favorable upper-air setup, further intensification is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours. Between 48 and 72 hours, Linfa is expected to track into the China mainland, which should result in swift weakening. Dissipation is forecast by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of exact intensity, rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China over the coming days.

INIT 07/0300Z 20.6N 118.8E 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 07/1200Z 21.4N 118.7E 65 KT 75 MPH

24H 08/0000Z 21.8N 118.7E 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 08/1200Z 22.6N 118.2E 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 09/0000Z 23.4N 117.3E 65 KT 75 MPH...APPROACHING CHINA

72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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