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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 AM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

...LINFA BETTER ORGANIZED ON ITS NORTHWARD TREK...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...20.2N 119.3E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF LAOGAG CITY, PHILIPPINES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 2 KT...3 MPH...5 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---------------------------------------------

At 6:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 20.2N 119.3E, or about 160 miles (260 km) north-northwest of Laogag City, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 985 millibars (hPa; 29.09 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking north at 2 knots (3 mph, 5 km/h). Environmental conditions may favor slight intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours, but quick weakening is expected thereafter as Linfa moves into the China mainland.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 AM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

Tropical Storm Linfa has continued to become better organized since the previous advisory. The aerial extent of deep convection, with cloudtop temperatures below -80C, has steadily increased since earlier this morning. The low-level circulation is no longer exposed, although it remains on the northeastern side of the aforementioned convective mass. Recent satellite intensity estimates, which have continually lagged the actual strength of the cyclone, were T2.5/35kt from JTWC, T3.0/45kt from SAB, and T3.2/49kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. On the basis of continued improvement since the last advisory, the initial intensity is bumped up to 55kt.

After tracking north-northwestward this morning, Linfa has resumed its northward trek toward a weakness between an upper-level trough across eastern China and a subtropical ridge across the northern West Pacific. Since the cyclone is located within a col region, some deviation in trajectory is expected over the coming days, but the general motion is expected to remain north. By 48 hours and beyond, a westward extension of the ridge across the West Pacific, as well as the continued presence of the upper-level trough that should detach into an upper-level low across eastern China, is expected to direct Linfa on a more north-northwest track into the China mainland. Once inland, the low-level circulation of the system should track westward and quickly dissipate.

After enduring a high 20 to 30 knots of wind shear yesterday, upper-level winds have lessened to a moderate 10 to 15 knots atop the cyclone. Maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that wind shear is even lower to the north of the cyclone. Coupled with sea surface temperatures of 28-30C, an adequately moist mid-level environment, and a generally favorable upper-air setup, further intensification is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours, and the updated forecast now shows Linfa attaining typhoon status. Between 48 and 72 hours, Linfa is expected to track into the China mainland, which should result in swift weakening. Dissipation is forecast by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of exact intensity, rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are likely to impact Taiwan and eastern China over the coming days.

INIT 06/2100Z 20.2N 119.3E 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 07/0600Z 21.0N 119.4E 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 07/1800Z 21.6N 119.3E 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 08/0600Z 22.7N 119.2E 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 08/1800Z 23.8N 118.1E 60 KT 70 MPH...APPROACHING CHINA

72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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