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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 18

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

...LINFA RESTRENGTHENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...19.8N, 119.2E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ... ± 15 MI... 25 KM

ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF LAOGAG CITY, PHILIPPINES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 4 KT...5 MPH...7 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 19.8N, 119.4E, or about 140 miles (230 kilometers) northwest of Laogag City, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 989 millibars (hPa; 29.21 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking north-northwest at 4 knots (5 mph, 7 km/h). Linfa is expected to recurve northward, where conditions may be more favorable for intensification; Linfa is expected to pose a threat to Taiwan in the coming days. A 0731z RapidScat pass showed very limited but nonetheless detectable areas of 50kt windsg

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 18

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST TUE JUL 07 2015

Linfa has organized some throughout the evening and into the overnight hours as Linfa tracks into an area of lesser wind shear. The well-defined circulation of Linfa remains exposed; however, the primary convective mass is more in proximity to the center than it was previously. Deep convection continues to persist; however, the area north of the circulation is virtually devoid of any shower activity. The CIMSS-ADT estimated T3.1/47kt for Linfa, while SATCON consensus was at 50 kts including members AMSU at 51 kts and SSMIS at 52 kts. A 0731z RapidScat scatterometer pass revealed isolated and limited but nonetheless detectable areas of 50 knot winds mostly to the storm's southeast and south. Since this is largely in agreement with the aforementioned satellite intensity estimates, the intensity for this advisory has been set at 50 knots, with the pressure brought down to 989 millibars to reflect the continued convection and gravitate more towards the satellite estimations.

Linfa has slowly been tracking towards the north-northwest over the past few hours, but this is probably just a slight temporal deviation from the overall northerly motion anticipate for Linfa over the next few days. As this is the result of the storm traveling within a weakness within the subtropical ridge, this northerly motion is expected to be somewhat erratic. After two days, a segment of the trough is expected to split and track towards southeastern China, while the subtropical ridge is expected to rebuild westward, bringing Linfa westward and towards mainland China. Assuming interaction with a nearby Chan-hom does not begin early, Linfa should track into and weaken over China, after which the storm's remnants are expected to be absorbed by Chan-hom.

As Linfa is currently entering an area of low wind shear values south and southwest of Taiwan, the next day or two should provide the most optimal conditions that Linfa has been in throughout its lifetime, which should allow for some strengthening. However, after two days Linfa will begin interacting with both Taiwan and mainland China, which, in addition to increasing wind shear and quickly cooling sea surface temperatures over the Taiwan Strait should bring Linfa's intensity down. Linfa will probably strike mainland China a weak tropical storm and dissipate shortly thereafter.

INIT 06/1500Z 19.8N 119.2E 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 07/0000Z 20.7N 119.5E 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 07/1200Z 21.6N 119.8E 60 KT 70 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN

36H 08/0000Z 22.4N 120.0E 50 KT 60 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN

48H 08/1200Z 23.2N 119.6E 45 KT 50 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN

72H 09/1200Z 24.3N 117.9E 35 KT 40 MPH ... INLAND MAINLAND CHINA

96H 10/1200Z ... DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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