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Public advisoryEdit

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST THU JUL 09 2015

...CHAN-HOM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED YET...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...21.6N 130.6E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF NAHA, JAPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 KT...105 MPH...165 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 12 KT...14 MPH...23 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Typhoon Chan-Hom was situated near 21.6N, 130.6E, or about 370 miles (595 kilometers) south-southeast of Naha, Japan. Maximum sustained winds were 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 955 millibars (hPa; 28.20 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwestward at 12 knots (14 mph, 23 km/h). Conditions are expected to remain favorable for Chan-hom to continue strengthening steadily over the next two days as the typhoon tracks without much inhibition towards the southern Ryukyu Islands.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM DISCUSSION NUMBER 35

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST THU JUL 09 2015

Chan-hom has changed little in organization over the past few hours. Deep convection has continued to pulse in the eastern eyewall, while the eye itself continues to struggle in becoming clear. Although upper-level outflow remains good in all four quadrant, satellite animations indicate the presence of mid-level dry air within the northern semicircle of Chan-hom, likely being pulled in as a result of the massive size of the typhoon. Recent satellite intensity estimates were T4.5/77kt from SAB, T4.5/77kt, and T5.0/90kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. As such, the initial intensity has been held at the upper end of these estimates, at 90kt.

Chan-hom continues west-northwest this morning, steered by the western extension of the mid-level ridge across the northern West Pacific. This trajectory is not expected to change over the next 72 hours, and landfall over eastern China is expected by the end of day 3. Thereafter, the approach of an upper-level trough from the west should erode the western periphery of the aforementioned anticyclone and direct Chan-hom north and eventually northeastward into the Yellow Sea.

Until landfall in approximately 72 hours, environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for steady intensification. Wind shear is a moderate 10 to 20 knots, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above 29C, and there is expected to be an abundance of ocean heat content. However, the forecast is complicated by the massive size of Chan-hom, which has acted and continues to act to pull in drier air from the surrounding environment. Despite model projections which continue to indicate a Category 5 cyclone, the WHFC prediction has been lowered slightly to account for the aforementioned issues. Nonetheless, Chan-hom is expected to be a potentially deadly tropical cyclone as it moves ashore eastern China. In the extended range, once the typhoon enters the Yellow Sea, sea surface temperatures below 24C and higher wind shear are likely to impart quick weakening.

INIT 08/1500Z 21.6N 130.6E 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 129.4E 95 KT 110 MPH

24H 09/1200Z 24.2N 127.3E 100 KT 115 MPH...APPROACHING SOUTHERN JAPANESE ISLANDS

36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 125.2E 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR SOUTHERN JAPANESE ISLANDS

48H 10/1200Z 26.7N 123.3E 110 KT 125 MPH

72H 11/1200Z 29.0N 121.4E 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND

96H 12/1200Z 31.4N 122.6E 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 13/1200Z 34.6N 124.3E 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNT LOW


$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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