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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 24

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 AM JST MON JUL 06 2015

...CHAN-HOM APPROACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 6:00 AM JST...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...16.0N 142.8E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WNW OF SAIPAN, MARIANA ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 KT...70 MPH...110 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 13 KT...15 MPH...24 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 6:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was situated near 16.0N 142.8E, about 205 miles (330 km) west-northwest of Saipan, Mariana Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 985 millibars (hPa; 29.09 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 13 knots (15 mph, 24 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to favor steady to rapid intensification throughout the forecast period, and Chan-hom is likely to become an exceptionally powerful typhoon in the West Pacific over the coming days.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 AM JST MON JUL 06 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-hom has continued to organize since the previous advisory. Although deep convection near the center has decreased some in latest frames, presumably due to some dry air entrainment, the prominent spiral band to the west has become more better defined and developed deep convection, and upper-level outflow continues to become increasingly impressive. In addition, a series of microwave passes from earlier this morning indicate that Chan-hom has developed a well-defined mid-level eye, with lower-level inner core features becoming better organized. Recent satellite intensity estimates were T3.0/45kt from SAB, T3.5/55kt from JTWC, and T3.4/53kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. However, given the developing inner core and altogether better appearance compared to the previous advisory cycle, the initial intensity has been upped to 60kt.

A combination of UW-CIMSS maps and water vapor animations indicate that the upper-level environment is almost as good as it can be for a tropical cyclone, with outflow expanding in all four quadrants–most notably to the west. Combined with sea surface temperatures near 30C and more than adequate ocean heat content, the stage seems to be set for rapid intensification once an inner core becomes solidified. However, one negating factor may be the presence of mid-level dry air wrapping into the cyclone from the northwest. Assuming that this dry air mixed out over the next few hours, Chan-hom should have no issues intensifying throughout the rest of the period. The updated intensity forecast is previous to the similar one.

Chan-hom is tracking steadily west-northwest under the influence of a potent mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north. This steering mechanism is expected to dominate the forecast period, and very little change in trajectory is expected. On that forecast path, Chan-hom is expected to pass closest to the southern Japanese Islands in 96 hours or so before tracking directly into mainland China by day 5. The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement since yesterday, and it now appears that Chan-hom will pose an extreme threat to the China mainland by the end of the week. Residents both in the southern Japanese Islands and China should very closely monitor the progress of what is expected to be a large and powerful cyclone.

INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 142.8E 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 141.0E 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 17.6N 138.6E 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 07/0600Z 18.0N 136.4E 100 KT 115 MPH

48H 07/1800Z 19.3N 134.3E 115 KT 130 MPH

72H 08/1800Z 22.2N 130.5E 130 KT 155 MPH

96H 09/1800Z 25.5N 125.8E 140 KT 160 MPH

120H 10/1800Z 28.7N 121.0E 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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