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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 23

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST SUN JUL 05 2015

...CHAN-HOM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED MUCH...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...15.4N 143.5E

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: ZERO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was situated near 15.4N 143.5E. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 991 millibars (hPa; 29.27 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to favor steady to rapid intensification throughout the forecast period, and Chan-hom is likely to become an exceptionally powerful typhoon in the West Pacific over the coming days.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST SUN JUL 05 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-hom has steadily become more organized overnight. Radar from overnight showed a respectable satellite presentation has continued to organize this morning. The storm seems to have shedded its blob to the north, and a solid CDO has developed. Subjective estimates from SAB and JTWC remain unchanged, and so does the advisory intensity.

The environment for Chan-hom is expected to be exceptionally conducive for steady to rapid intensification. Wind shear has fallen to a low 5 to 10 knots, and well-defined outflow channels for both poleward and equatorward directions are becoming evident. Chan-hom is entering a region characterized by ocean temperatures over 30C and more than adequate ocean heat content. Finally, water vapor animations indicate that the cyclone remains embedded within a region of high mid-level moisture. As such, the big three of computer models remain bullish, wit the HWRF, Euro, and GFS all show a quite potent typhoon. It should be noted, however, that neither global nor hurricane models can forecast the inner structural changes that take place within cyclones. Nevertheless, it is clear that Chan-hom will become a very powerful typhoon within the West Pacific over the next few days. The new intensity forecast shows slow intensification, followed by rapid deepening once the storms finishes an inner core in around 24 hours. Chan-hom has continued on its steady west-northwest track this morning by m mid-level ridge across the northern West Pacific, and this steering motion is expected to continue throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast is an update from the previous package, but now brings the storm quite close to China by day 5. The track forecast is on the north side of the envelope.

INIT 04/2100Z 15.4N 143.5E 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 05/0600Z 16.1N 141.7E 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 05/1800Z 17.3N 139.1E 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 06/0600Z 18.8N 136.5E 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 06/1800Z 20.4N 134.8E 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 07/1800Z 23.4N 129.8E 135 KT 155 MPH

96H 08/1800Z 26.7N 125.4E 140 KT 160 MPH

120H 09/1800Z 26.9N 120.9E 120 KT 140 MPH ...NEAR CHINA

$$

Forecaster YE

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