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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 9

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

0600 AM JST TUE JUN 23 2015

... KUJIRA STILL OVER HAINAN ...

SUMMARY OF 0600 AM JST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...19.4N 109.5E

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF HAIKOU, CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 06:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 19.4N, 109.5E, or about 70 miles (110 kilometers) southwest of Haikou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 989 mb (hPa; 29.21 inHg), and the system was moving west at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h). Kujira is expected to weaken over Hainan before gaining marginally in strength over the Gulf of Tonkin before striking Northern Vietnam and Guangxi.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

0600 AM JST TUE JUN 23 2015

Lots of convective bursting but idk if Kujira got stronger as far as winds are concerned

Kujira has been recently generating significant convective bursts but it is likely that the system has not strengthened significantly. Ground observations of Tropical Storm Kujira continue to support an intensity of 35 knots and a low barometric pressure of 989 millibars even as the system traverses the mountainous terrain of Hainan. The center of the system is visible on infrared satellite imagery and confirmed by recent microwave passes.

The system continues to track relatively northwestward and should remain about the same in intensity as it approaches the Vietnam/China border. Despite conditions of high shear the system appears to be relatively organized. As Kujira moves off of Hainan slight strengthening should be expected before its second landfall. The WHFC forecast for this advisory maintains similar reasoning to the last.

INIT 22/2100Z 19.4N 109.9E 35 KT 40 MPH ... OVER HAINAN

12H 23/0600Z 20.4N 109.0E 35 KT 40 MPH ... GULF OF TONKIN

24H 23/1800Z 21.2N 108.3E 40 KT 45 MPH ... MOVING ASHORE ON VIETNAM/CHINA BORDER

36H 24/0600Z 22.4N 107.2E 30 KT 35 MPH ... INLAND

48H 24/1800Z 23.3N 106.1E 20 KT 25 MPH ... INLAND

72H 25/0600Z ... DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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