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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST TUE JUN 23 2015

... KUJIRA MOVES ONSHORE HAINAN AND TRACKS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...18.9N 109.9E

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF HAIKOU, CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 9 KT...10 MPH...17 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 18.9N, 109.9E, or about 80 miles (130 kilometers)southwest of Haikou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 992 mb (hPa; 29.30 inHg), and the system was moving west at 9 knots (10 mph, 17 km/h). Kujira is expected to weaken over Hainan before gaining marginally in strength over the Gulf of Tonkin before striking Northern Vietnam and Guangxi.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST TUE JUN 23 2015

Available ground observations, satellite imagery, and radar data indiciate that Kujira made landfall in northern Wanning, Hainan, China at around 22/0930z. Since the last advisory, Kujira made an unanticipated curve westward, bringing it inland further south and west than previously forecast. In addition, persistent and strong wind shear has made the center well devoid of any convection, with most of the shower activity displaced southwestward and over the South China Sea. However, periodic bursts of convective activity are expected. In addition, the storm's track over rough terrain in Hainan has largely disrupted the central circulation, though thanks to this disruption there is low confidence in Kujira's position, and it may still be potentially over water. Sustained winds of 31kt and gusts of 39kt have been recorded in Sanya, located south of the center but towards the rain-heavy quadrant of Kujira. Despite generous barometer readings below 990 millibars from some ground observations, it is likely that Kujira's pressure is steadily rising as it weakens over land. Although the winds at Sanya are three hours old, continued bursts of convection and cold cloud tops are helping sustain some continued convection. Thus, the intensity for this advisory has been set at 35kt, though this may be a bit generous.

With Kujira now over Hainan, land interaction should be able to keep any significant strengthening out of the picture once Kujira emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin. Though the cyclone has been tracking westward for some time now, Kujira is still expected to move in a generally northwestward direction, potentially making another landfall somewhere along the coasts of Guangxi or northern Vietnam as suggested by the GFS. Kujira is expected to continue feeling the effects of strong wind shear in excess of 30 knots, which should override the warm waters of the Gulf of Tonkin. The WHFC forecast guidance for this advisory follows the GFS and keeps Kujira a weak cyclone as it moves northwestward.

INIT 22/1500Z 18.9N 109.9E 35 KT 40 MPH ... OVER HAINAN

12H 23/0000Z 19.6N 109.2E 30 KT 35 MPH ... EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN

24H 23/1200Z 20.3N 108.6E 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 24/0000Z 21.0N 107.7E 35 KT 40 MPH ... MOVING ONSHORE VIETNAM

48H 24/1200Z 21.9N 107.0E 25 KT 30 MPH ... OVER VIETNAM/CHINA BORDER

72H 25/1200Z ... DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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