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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 7

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST MON JUN 22 2015

...KUJIRA LOOKS UGLY TO SAY THE LEAST...

SUMMARY OF 6:00 PM JST...09:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...18.3N 111.0E

ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF SANYA, HAINAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 7 KT...8 MPH...14 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 6:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 18.3N, 111.0E, or about 105 miles (165 km) south of Sanya, Hainan. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 990 mb (hPa; 29.24 inHg), and the system was moving north-northwest at 9 knots (10 mph, 16 km/h). The effects of strong upper-level winds are expected to deter significant development before Kujira moves ashore Hainan within the next 24 hours. Dissipation is forecast before the end of the forecast period.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST MON JUN 22 2015

Tropical Storm Kujira is producing very cold cloud tops, although the wind shear continues to hound Kujira and had displaced the convection to the southwest. The intensity remains 50 knts based on the earlier ASCAT pass, which is significantly above the lower estimates from SAB and KNES (which are being thrown out, since they appear to be using the wrong pattern; with a shear pattern, T3.5 seems more appropriate), and slightly bellow the CI values from UW-CIMSS ADT and in fair agreement (but higher than, given the conservative nature of WPAC Dvorak agencies compared to the American counterpart) with both the JMA and JTWC ADT, which are T3.1/47 knts and T2.9/43 knots respectively, as well as a presumed T3.0/4 knts from the JMA.

The initial motion is 315/6. Tropical Storm Kujira has turned toward the north-northwest this evening under the influence of a mid-level ridge east of the Philippines. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days, before and after landfall. The new track forecast is a little left of the previous in line with the 0z GFS. The intensity forecast is an update from the previous, but shows more short-term deepening, perhaps too much due to the persistent shear and structure that does not favor intensification beyond what is shown below, due to the fact that the shear pattern stops at T3.5/55 knots. Once inland Asia, rapid weakening is expected. The new forecast from the WHC does not have a 48 point, but the old one did.

INIT 22/0900Z 18.3N 111.0E 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 22/1800Z 19.8N 110.7E 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR LAND

24H 23/0600Z 20.13 110.4E 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND HAINAN

36H 23/1800Z 21.8N 109.2E 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND MAINLAND CHINA

48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster YE

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