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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 6

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST MON JUN 22 2015

...KUJIRA STRONGER ON APPROACH TO HAINAN...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

------------------------------

LOCATION...18.2N 111.1E

ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF SANYA, HAINAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 9 KT...10 MPH...16 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 18.2N, 111.1E, or about 105 miles (165 km) south of Sanya, Hainan. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 990 mb (hPa; 29.24 inHg), and the system was moving north-northwest at 9 knots (10 mph, 16 km/h). The effects of strong upper-level winds are expected to deter significant development before Kujira moves ashore Hainan within the next 24 hours. Dissipation is forecast before the end of the forecast period.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 PM JST MON JUN 22 2015

Deep convective activity has expanded significantly in aerial extent over the past few hours. However, visible satellite animations reveal that the low-level circulation of Kujira still remains on the northeastern edge of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates at 0232z were a unanimous T2.5/35kt from both SAB and JTWC. However, a 0202z ASCAT MetOp-B pass indicated several 45kt wind barbs and a sole 50kt wind barb. Given the low bias of the instrument, the initial intensity has been set at 50kt, in accordance with the recent T3.2/49kt satellite estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion is 325/9. Tropical Storm Kujira has turned toward the north-northwest this evening under the influence of a mid-level ridge east of the Philippines. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days. As has been the case with virtually every forecast package, model guidance has shifted around a bit this evening, with the consensus now well west of the previous forecast. As such, this package has shifted the forecast track in that direction. Kujira is now expected to make landfall on Hainan within 24 hours and progress across the Leizhou peninsula into the China mainland shortly thereafter.

Tropical Storm Kujira has slowly intensified over the past 24 hours despite the effects of strong northeasterly wind shear. However, the time is running out for further strengthening as the cyclone moves closer to shore. Now that Kujira is expected to make landfall on Hainan again, the intensity forecast has been lowered after 24 hours compared to the previous cycle. Kujira is expected to dissipate by 72 hours.

INIT 22/0300Z 18.2N 111.1E 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 22/1200Z 19.4N 110.9E 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 23/0000Z 20.1N 110.3E 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND HAINAN

36H 23/1200Z 21.5N 109.4E 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND MAINLAND CHINA

48H 24/0000Z 21.9N 108.3E 15 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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