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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 5

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

0600 AM JST MON JUN 22 2015

... KUJIRA DISORGANIZED, BUT STRENGTHENING ...

SUMMARY OF 0600 AM JST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...17.5N 111.6E

ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HAIKOU, P.R.CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 KT...50 MPH...85 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 06:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 17.5N, 111.6E, or about 180 miles (290 kilometers) south of Haikou, People's Republic of China. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 992 mb (hPa; 29.29 inHg), and the system was moving north-northeast at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h). Shear is expected to remain an inhibitor of Kujira's intensity as it nears Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

0600 AM JST MON JUN 22 2015

Tropical Storm Kujira continues to look poor on satellite imagery as a result of an environment of strong northeasterly shear. Kujira continues to puff out small bursts of convection from its center, keeping it from being exposed entirely at one time. A 14z ASCAT pass supports raising Kujira to a 45 kt initial intensity.

Kujira is not expected to strengthen significantly throughout the rest of its time over water as a result of persistent northeasterly shear, inhibiting its strength likely to a minimal severe tropical storm at best. This is in line with general model thinking for this storm. There is some indication that shear could allow from slight strengthening as the storm approaches the coastline. The intensity forecast is updated with the recent strengthening of Kujira but will continue to indicate only marginal strengthening as the system approaches the Chinese mainland. Kujira is not expected to become a typhoon before landfall.

The system has started to shift more northward in line with model tracks, which are in agreement that Kujira will likely meander in a generally due northward track from its current location as it approaches a landfall near Yangjiang, Guangdong Province. This advisory preserves the northerly motion indicated in the last forecast, with only slight adjustments.

INIT 21/2100Z 17.5N 111.6E 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 22/0600Z 18.4N 111.7E 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 22/1800Z 19.7N 111.8E 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 23/0600Z 20.5N 111.6E 50 KT 60 MPH ... APPROACHING GUANGDONG

48H 23/1800Z 22.1N 110.5E 40 KT 45 MPH ... MOVING ONSHORE

72H 24/0600Z 24.3N 109.0E 20 KT 25 MPH ... REMNANT LOW/INLAND

96H 25/0600Z ... DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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