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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 4

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST MON JUN 22 2015

... KUJIRA REMAINS DISORGANIZED ...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...17.0N 111.5E

ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 17.0N, 111.5E, or about 230 miles (370 kilometers) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 mb (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h). Shear is expected to remain an inhibitor of Kujira's intensity as it nears Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

12:00 AM JST MON JUN 22 2015

Kujira is attempting to battle with 30-40 knot northeasterly shear in the South China Sea, and as a result convection remains well-displaced to the west and southwest. A large burst of convection occurred near the center during the evening, but satellite images overnight showed the low-level circulation center becoming exposed and displaced from the convection once again. Continued bursts of convection are likely to occur as Kujira approaches the coast, though until a solid core develops and persists over the center, Kujira should remain a disorganized system. There have been no recent scatterometer passes of the tropical storm, though at 1432z SAB intensity estimates indicated T2.5/35kts. As no weakening is believed to have occurred in the past six hours, the intensity this advisory remains at 40 kts.

The intensity forecast for Kujira remains generally the same. Despite very impressive sea surface temperatures throughout the expected path of Kujira, the upper-lvel environment is expected to remain highly inhibitive of strengthening. Although shear values to the north near Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula are slightly lower, shear has been generally intensifying over the past 24 hours, which indicates that the unfavorable conditions currently present will persist. In addition, models continue to indicate only modest strengthening. The WHFC intensity forecast this advisory continues to indiciate marginal strengthening before landfall, and Kujira is not expected to become a hurricane.

Kujira has started tracking northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge. Models have shifted well eastward this advisory, and although the ECMWF indicated a landfall at its 0z run along the eastern coast of Hainan, both the GFS and HWRFx are depicting landfall further east in the Maoming and Yangjiang areas. In accordance with some of these trends, the WHFC forecast track has shifted slightly more eastward and no longer shows a Hainan landfall. This also influences the intensity forecast, which shows some more persistence given that Kujira will remain over water for a longer period of time.

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 111.5E 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 22/0000Z 18.0N 111.8E 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 22/1200Z 19.3N 111.6E 45 KT 50 MPH ... NEAR HAINAN

36H 23/0000Z 20.3N 111.6E 45 KT 50 MPH ... APPROACHING GUANGDONG

48H 23/1200Z 21.4N 111.0E 45 KT 50 MPH ... MOVING ONSHORE

72H 24/0000Z 22.9N 109.3E 15 KT 20 MPH ... REMNANT LOW/INLAND

96H 25/0000Z ... DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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