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Public Advisory Edit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST SUN JUN 21 2015

...KUJIRA IS UGLY...

SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...16.4N 111.7E

ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF DA NANG, VIETNAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 16.4N 111.7E, or about 220 miles (355 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 mb (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system was stationary. The persistent effects of strong upper-level winds are expected to limit significant intensification of the tropical cyclone as it moves northward toward Hainan over the next few days.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

Discussion Edit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST SUN JUN 21 2015

Kujira is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The CDO noted earlier has weakened, and due to 15 to 30 knots of shear, the low-level center is now devoid of convection as of 5z. CMISS ADT estimates are T2.9/43 knts and T2.5/35 knts from SAB and T2.0/30 knts from JTWC. It was tempting to cut the intensity, but for continuity, the intensity remains a mere 40 knts.

Even though Tropical Storm Kujira is embedded over some of the warmest ocean temperatures on the globe, running at nearly 32C, ideal for extreme intensification, the system continues to be plagued by strong northeasterly wind shear from an expansive anticyclone to the northwest. This shear is only expected to lessen slightly as time progresses. None of the global models are aggressive on this one. The GFS keeps this system broad and ugly until landfall, and the WHFC follows this philosophy. The new forecast is more conservative than the previous one due to persistent wind shear.

Over the coming days, a series of shortwave troughs should erode the western edge of a subtropical ridge northeast of the Philippines. As a result, Kujira is expected to turn northward and maintain that general heading through its second landfall. A mid-level ridge near the Philippines should direct the circulation, assuming it survives its first landfall, of the cyclone on a more west-northwest heading. Compared to the previous forecast package, reliable computer guidance indicates that Kujira will move quicker, and so the times of dissipation has been brought forward. The new track is also a bit more north of the previous, and is not in the greatest agreement of the JTWC consensus aid.

INIT 21/0900Z 16.4N 111.7E 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 21/1800Z 17.1N 111.E 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 22/0600Z 18.1N 111.3E 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 22/1800Z 19.3N 111.2E 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 23/0600Z 20.2N 110.8E 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster YE

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