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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 13

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

0600 AM JST WED JUN 24 2015

... KUJIRA NEARING LAND ...

SUMMARY OF 0600 AM JST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 20.4N 106.8E

ABOUT 30 MI.. 50 KM S OF HAI PHONG, VIETNAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 8 KT...9 MPH...15 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 06:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 20.4N, 106.8E, or about 30 miles (50 kilometers) south of Hai Phong, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 989 mb (hPa; 29.21 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 8 knots (9 mph, 15 km/h).

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

0600 AM JST WED JUN 24 2015

Kujira continues to be buffeted by strong 30+ knot northeasterly shear this morning. The center of the storm continues to be difficult to locate, shrouded under thick convective bursts offset to the southwest of the center that indicate the storm is still going strong, at least for a tropical storm. Kujira's position in this package is determined through a blend of surface observations, poor radar imagery, and satellite iamgery. No scatterometer or microwave data was available for positioning. Intensity estimates remain the same this time around. It is not likely that Kujira has weakened in the past few hours, all indicators point toward holding the intensity of the storm at 40 knots, and a reading from Hai Phong suggests that the central minimum pressure is about 990 millibars.

The storm is centered just offshore of the Vietnamese coast, which gives it little more than 6 more hours before beginning to weaken as it moves inland. As a result, Kujira is not expected to intensify much further and is expected to steadily weaken once it makes landfall. Kujira's forward motion remains relatively uncertain but this track forecast has been adjusted for a slightly quicker forward speed than the last. Kujira should continue to track west-northwest for the rest of the day or so before turning in a more northerly direction for the remainder of its lifetime as it moves toward a trough located to its northwest.


INIT 23/1500Z 20.4N 106.8E 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 24/0000Z 21.0N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH ... INLAND

24H 24/1200Z 22.0N 105.2E 25 KT 30 MPH ... INLAND

36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 104.9E 15 KT 20 MPH ... REMNANT LOW

48H 25/1200Z ... DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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