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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 11

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST TUE JUN 23 2015

...TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA IN THE GULF OF TONKIN...

SUMMARY OF 6:00 PM JST...09:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...19.6N 108.3E (Confidence: Poor)

ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF HAIKOU, CHINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 KT...50 MPH...80 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...987 MB...29.10 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 19.6N, 108.3E, or about 135 miles (215 kilometers) southwest of Haikou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 987 mb (hPa; 29.10 inHg), and the system was moving west at 7 knots (8 mph, 13 km/h). Little or no change in wind speed is expected untill landfall late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday morning.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 PM JST TUE JUN 23 2015

Like all storms, Tropical Storm Kujira is difficult to assess all around this evening. There have been no recent microwave passes, no recent ASCAT passes (a recent ASCAt passed deicded it would be a fun idea to miss the system), and the system has emerged into the Gulf of Tonkin over the past few hours, rendering the often conservative surface observations unhelpful. Visible and infrared satellite animations indicate that Kujira has become slightly better organized since this time last night, with a CCC (cold cloud cover) canopy pattern to its southwest. Due to what has already been mentioned, the exact location of the low-level circulation is unknown, but it appears to be somewhat embedded within the convective canopy. The 0530z satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT value indicated T2.7/39kt, but raw values of T3.0/45 knts. SSD ADT estimates are in simlar range, and that is with an incorrect center fix. Hence, the intensity has been elevated to a highly generous 45kt.

The cyclone appears to have continued on its steady westward track over the past few hours despite model projections for a northwest motion, possibly since the models can not depict what resolution of the topography of this part of the world. It is also possible the subtropical ridge east of the Philippines is stronger than anticipated, preventing a more poleward track. The new forecast track is an update of the previous one.,

The environment moving forward is not expected to be conducive for significant strengthening given moderate to strong easterly wind shear. As such, no intensification is shown. The updated forecast is similar to the previous one but shows quicker dissipation once inland.

INIT 23/0300Z 19.6N 108.3E 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 23/1800Z 19.1N 107.0E 45 KT 50 MPH ..NEAR COAST

24H 24/0600Z 20.3N 106.4E 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster YE

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