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 Public Advisory Edit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 1

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 AM JST SUN JUN 21 2015

...TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA FORMS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...

SUMMARY OF 6:00 AM JST...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...15.8N 111.1E

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INHG

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 2 KT...2 MPH...3 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 6:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 15.8N 111.1E, or about 195 miles (315 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 997 mb (hPa; 29.44 inHg), and the system was moving westward at 2 kt (2 mph, 3 km/h). The persistent effects of strong upper-level winds are expected to limit significant intensification of the tropical cyclone as it moves northward toward Hainan.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

Discussion Edit

TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

6:00 AM JST SUN JUN 21 2015

The area of disturbed weather in the South China Sea has acquired sufficient organization to be declared a tropical cyclone. Infrared satellite animations, however, do not show the best-looking system, with the low-level circulation positioned on the northeastern edge of a large, ragged, and deep area of showers and thunderstorms. The 18z satellite estimate from SAB was T2.0/30kt, while the most recent estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT is T2.3/33kt. Given the vigor of the convective activity in association with the cyclone, as well as an earlier ASCAT pass which revealed a large expanse of 30kt winds, the initial intensity estimate has been set at a possibly generous 35kt.

Tropical Storm Kujira is currently located over sea surface temperatures in excess of 31°C, among the warmest on the planet. Despite this, maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that the cyclone is dealing with very strong northeasterly wind shear, up to the magnitude of 30kt. Over the coming days, these unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast to only become marginally conducive as Kujira progresses northward toward Hainan. As a result, only modest intensification is depicted within the next 48 hours. The WHFC prediction is most in line with the 12z HWRF which shows the cyclone reaching an estimated peak of 45kt. Thereafter, land interaction is expected to cause the system to weaken quickly. Dissipation is expected by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving slowly westward at 2kt. Kujira is being steered in that direction by the extension of a subtropical ridge positioned northeast of the Philippines. This high is expected to erode as a series of shortwave troughs dig into the Japan region, and the cyclone is forecast to turn northward as a result. In about 48 hours, Kujira is expected to make landfall in eastern Hainan; thereafter, indications are that it will move into southern China as a weaker storm.

INIT 20/2100Z 15.8N 111.1E 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 21/0600Z 16.0N 111.0E 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 21/1800Z 16.9N 111.3E 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 22/0600Z 17.7N 111.5E 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 22/1800Z 19.1N 111.1E 45 KT 50 MPH...APPROACHING HAINAN ISLAND

72H 23/1800Z 20.4N 110.7E 30 KT 35 MPH...APPROACHING CHINA MAINLAND

96H 24/1800Z 22.9N 108.6E 15 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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