Atlantic[]
Tropical Weather Outlook
200 PM EDT Jun 6 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
...EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION...THROUGH 10 DAYS...
We continue to monitor the potential for large-scale ascent over Central America
and the central and western Caribbean over the next two or so weeks for possible
tropical cyclogenesis. Models are in good agreement in showing upper-level
anticyclogenesis in the southwestern Caribbean after day 5, but diverge in
showing subsequent progression. The EPS suite tends to bring this anticyclone
west quicker, resulting in a shearing northwesterly flow across the Caribbean
that would likely curtail and development potential. The GEFS suite on the other
hand show a much more robust upper-level anticyclone regime remaining over the
western Caribbean. Several of its members show tropical cyclogenesis, though
the specific mechanism for tropical formation as depicted by the GFS, its
ensemble compatriots, and the GEM look more related to spurious vorticity
generation than reasonable solutions. A tropical wave now located at aroudn 27W
and centered southwest of Cabo Verde may play a yet-to-be determined role
in activity in the central and western Caribbean when it traverses that region
at days 6-8. Nonetheless, broad ascent will make for regionally disturbed
weather after day 5.
Forecaster Tran
East Pacific[]
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 180°W longitude...
The Wiki-Hurricanes Forecasting Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E, located over a thousand miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression One-C, located several hundred miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii.
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles west of Panama in the coming days. Environmental conditions, although initially unfavorable, are forecast to become conducive for steady development as the system moves generally westward.
- Formation chances through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent...
- Formation chances through 120 hours...medium...50 percent...
2. An area of low pressure ies expected to form several hundred miles south-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula in thec oming days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development when this system develops.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low... near 0 percent...
- Formation chances through 120 hours... low... 30 percent...
$$
Forecaster TheAustinMan
West Pacific[]
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER
300 AM JST THU JUL 09 2015
For the western North Pacific...west of 180° longitude...
The Wiki-Hurricanes Forecasting Center is issuing advisories on Typhoon Chan-hom, located several hundred miles southeast of the southern Japanese Islands, on Typhoon Linfa, located a few hundred miles southwest of Taiwan, and on Typhoon Nangka, located several hundred miles northeast of Guam.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster TheAustinMan