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 Public Advisory Edit

TROPICAL STORM ELA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 5

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

5:00 AM HST WED JUL 8 2015

...RECON FINDS THE DEPRESSION HAS INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM ELA...

SUMMARY OF 5:00 AM HST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...17.0N 143.2W

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 805 MI...1,295 KM ESE OF HILO, HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 15 KT...17 MPH...27 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 5:00 am HST, the center of Tropical Storm Ela was located with high confidence near 17.0N 143.2W, about 805 miles (1m295 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), the minimum barometric pressure was 1003 millibars (29.62 inHg), and the cyclone was moving northwest at 15 knots (17 mph, 27 km/h). No change in strength is forecast over the next 24 hours, but steady weakening should begin thereafter as the cyclone enters an increasingly unfavorable environment.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 11:00 am HST.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

Discussion Edit

TROPICAL STORM ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

5:00 AM HST WED JUL 8 2015

The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Four-E this morning has found that the cyclone is producing maximum flight-level winds near 40kt with surface winds near 35kt. As a result, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ela at this time. Despite the increase in strength, Ela has actually become less organized over the past few hours, with no true organization or intensity to the associated shower and thunderstorm activity. Recent satellite intensity estimates were T1.5/25kt from SAB, T1.5/25kt from JTWC, and T2.5/35kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.

The environment moving forward is not expected to be conducive for intensification. Although shear is currently under 10 knots, upper-level winds are forecast to increase to over 20 knots by 36 hours and over 30 knots between 72 and 96 hours. In addition, the cyclone is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and into an increasingly dry environment. No change in strength is forecast over the next day or so as wind shear remains slow, but swift weakening is forecast thereafter. Dissipation is forecast by the end of day 3.

Ela is tracking quickly northwestward this morning, steered on the west side of a mid-level ridge southwest of California. This motion is expected to continue for the next 48 to 72 hours. Thereafter, the shallowness of the cyclone should direct it on a more west-northwest or westward track until dissipation. Ela is forecast to pass north of Hawaiian Islands at this time, and any impacts are expected to be very marginal.

INIT 08/1500Z 17.0N 143.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 09/0000Z 17.4N 144.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 09/1200Z 18.8N 146.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 10/1200Z 22.2N 153.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNT LOW

72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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