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Public Advisory Edit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

5:00 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM..

SUMMARY OF 8:00 PM PDT...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...15.2N 140.1W

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 1,250 MI...2,060 KM ESE OF HILO, HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 KT...17 MPH...27 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 8:00 pm PDT, the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near 15.2N 140.1W, about 1,250 miles (2,060 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), the minimum barometric pressure was 1004 millibars (29.65 inHg), and the cyclone was moving west-northwest at 15 knots (17 mph, 27 km/h). Only slight intensification is expected over the next 48 hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 11:00 pm HST.

$$

Forecaster YE

Discussion Edit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

5:00 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

Four-E looks better than evening, compared to earlier when it was as ugly as the USA's win over Honduras. Well-defined banding features have developed and the storm is slightly better organized. Estimates from the WHFC and TAFB at T2.5/35 knts, but SAB is at T1.5/25-30 knts. The intensity remains 30 knts but this is conservative.

The depression is currently heading west-northwest on the southwestern flank of a big mid-level ridge to the cyclone's northeast. This trajectory is expected to remain in place throughout 96 hours. Thereafter, interaction with an upper-level low, as well as the forecast shallowness of the system, may cause Four-E to turn more west-northwestward. The new track forecast is once again further south than the previous one since they models may be overdoing the interaction between this system and One-C, but lies more north than the ECMWF, but is further south than the GFSS.

INIT 08/0300Z 15.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 08/1200Z 16.3N 142.4W 35 KT 35 MPH

24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W 35 KT 35 MPH

36H 09/1200Z 18.7N 146.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 10/0000Z 19.8N 148.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 11/0000Z 21.1N 152.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST TROP/RMNT LOW

96H 12/0000Z 22.2N 156.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster YE

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