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Public Advisory Edit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 2

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

2:00 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...DEPRESSION NOT WELL-ORGANIZED..

SUMMARY OF 2:00 PM PDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...13.7N 138.5W

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ABOUT 1,240 MI...2,000 KM ESE OF HILO, HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 KT...17 MPH...27 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---------------------------------------------

At 2:00 pm PDT, the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near 13.7N 138.5W, about 1,240 miles (2,000 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), the minimum barometric pressure was 1004 millibars (29.65 inHg), and the cyclone was moving west-northwest at 15 knots (17 mph, 27 km/h). Little or no intesfication is expected over the next 48 hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 8:00 pm PDT.

$$

Forecaster YE

Discussion Edit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

2:00 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The tropical depression has fallen off the cliff this afternoon. Convection has decreased considerably, and the storm is not well-organized, despite low wind shear. A WFHC fix a few hours ago went with T2.0/30 knts so the intensity is kept at 30 knots. However, given the terrible presentation, this estimate could be generous. Due to recent trends, the new intensity forecast calls for less than the previous and follows the LGEM. This is on the low-end of the guidance due to the fact the shear will kick in 24 hours.

Four-E is currently tracking west-northwest on the southwestern flank of a 588dm mid-level ridge to the cyclone's northeast. This trajectory is expected to remain in place throughout 96 hours. Thereafter, interaction with an upper-level low, as well as the forecast shallowness of the system, may cause Four-E to turn more west-northwestward. Statistical, dynamical, and global model guidance are all in fairly good agreement, and the cyclone does not appear to pose a direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands at this time. The new track forecast is further south than the previous one since they models may be overdoing the interaction between this system and One-C.

INIT 07/2100Z 13.8N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 08/0600Z 15.6N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 08/1800Z 17.1N 144.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 09/0600Z 18.3N 146.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 09/1800Z 19.2N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 10/1800Z 21.2N 152.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST TROP/RMNT LOW

96H 11/1800Z 23.3N 156.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster YE

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