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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 9

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS STATIONARY AND STEADY IN INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 14.7N 100.6W

ABOUT 155 MI... 250 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 400 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 14.7N, 100.6W, or about 155 miles (250 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 996 millibars (hPa; 29.42 inHg), and the system was stationary. Carlos is expected to begin moving on a west-northwesterly path while slowly strengthening over the next 24 hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

There has been little change in the appearance of Tropical Storm Carlos throughout the day. Visible satellite animations show an irregular central dense overcast atop the low-level circulation, with a fragmented band extending south and east. Satellite intensity estimates at 18z were T3.0/45kt from SAB and T3.5/55kt from TAFB. The most recent estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT is T3.1/47kt. As such, the initial intensity remains at a possibly generous 50 kt.

Although Carlos currently lies over the warmest waters of the East Pacific, it continues to feel the effects of strong northerly wind shear. This shear is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, limiting the rate at which the cyclone should be able to intensify. Thereafter, a brief period for more steady intensification may occur as an upper-level anticyclone develops and the thermodynamic environment remains adequate. By 72 hours, Carlos is expected to enter an environment characterized by 700-500mb relative humidity values below 65%, and by the end of the forecast period, the system is predicted to cross over increasingly cool sea surface temperatures. All reliable intensity guidance has come down since yesterday, with the 18z SHIPS indicating a peak of 62kt, the 18z LGEM indicating a peak of 65 kt, and the 12z HWRF indicating a peak of 79 kt. As such, the official intensity forecast will indicate steady strengthening through 72 hours, with an absolute peak lower than previous packages but still on the upper-end of the guidance, followed by steady weakening thereafter.

The track forecast remains essentially unchanged from yesterday. Tropical Storm Carlos is currently stationary in a light steering regime, and this is not forecast to change for the next 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, a ridge extending from the open East Pacific into northern Mexico is expected to build further eastward and cause the system to turn toward the west-northwest with an increasing forward motion. By 96 hours, an upper-level trough entering the Southwest United States may act as a weakness for Carlos to turn northwest into. All reliable guidance continues to indicate that Carlos will remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, although the outer rain bands of the system are likely to produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. In the extended range, models continue to point toward potential effects from Carlos ashore Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico; however, track forecasts may vary wildly at this juncture, and there is no immediate cause for preparations.

INIT 12/2100Z 14.8N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

12HR 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

24HR 13/1800Z 15,2N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

36HR 14/0600Z 15.7N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

48HR 14/1800Z 16.2N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

72HR 15/1800Z 17.3N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

96HR 16/1800Z 19.5N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

120HR 17/1800Z 21.3N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH


$$ Forecaster TAWX14

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