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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS HOLDING STEADY SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 14.8N 100.7W

ABOUT 155MI... 250KM SSW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 994 MB...29.36 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY (MRGL NORTHWEST AT 1KT)

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 14.8N, 100.7W, or about 155 miles (250 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 millibars (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system was stationary. Carlos is expected to begin moving on a west-northwesterly path while gradually strenghtening over the next 24 hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan


DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Despite high returns from subjective satellite intensity analysis, including T3.5/55kt from both SAB and TAFB and even higher estimates from CIMSS ADT, Carlos' convective structure has been fluctuating over the last six hours, and microwave imagery is not as well defined as previously. The large convective burst that occurred early this morning failed to establish a longer term convective core, and the developing eyewall that was present in microwave imagery this morning has since disappeared. Carlos has been hampered by 10-20 kt wind shear for much of the past 24 hours, and thus convective activity remains displaced south of the center. Taking these factors into account, the intensity for this advisory remains at 50 knots, though the pressure has been lowered in accordance with TAFB estimates due to the persistent firing of convection, albeit transiently.

Carlos currently lies in some of the warmest waters of the eastern North Pacific, which is conducive for strengthening. However, at the same time, 10-20 knot wind shear is helping to slow down the strengthening of Carlos, so in the meantime only gradual strengthening is expected. Once Carlos fully makes its turn towards the west-northwest, wind shear slightly relaxes after 72 hours. However, at the same time, the SHIPS forecast indicates that this will coincide with decreasing relative humidity values, which may hamper the storm. After 96 hours, the track takes Carlos into sea surface temperatures less than 26C, which could possibly put the brakes on Carlos' intensification. However, a track further east would allow for Carlos to remain over warm water. The WHFC intensity for Carlos remains on the upper-end of the models due to the possibility of Carlos developing a resilient core that may help mitigate the impacts of wind shear and sea surface temperatures.

The storm has come to a grinding halt over the last 12 hours as it begins to steer towards the west-northwest. As the model tracks have largely remained unchanged, the forecast track is virtually an update of the last advisory. Carlos is expected to be well on its way west-northwestward after 36 hours thanks to the strengthening of a ridge of high pressure. After 96 hours, the track begins to curve northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. As a result of this track, interests in the Baja California Peninsula should closely monitor this system, and although the possibility of a landfall along the southwestern Mexican coast has diminished, interests there should also remain posted as a tropical storm watch has been issued and Carlos should track close to the coast.

INIT 12/1500Z 14.8N 100.7W 50KT

12HR 13/0000Z 14.9N 100.8W 60KT

24HR 13/1200Z 15,1N 101.0W 65KT

36HR 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W 75KT

48HR 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.9W 85KT

72HR 15/1200Z 16.2N 102.7W 90KT

96HR 16/1200Z 17.4N 105.0W 90KT

120HR 17/1200Z 19.5N 107.2W 85KT


$$ Forecaster TheAustinMan

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