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Public AdvisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 6

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND DRIFTING NORTHWEST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 14.6N 100.5W

ABOUT 160 MI... 260 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 996 MB...29.42 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 5 KT...6 MPH...10 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 14.6N, 100.5W, or about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 996 millibars (hPa; 29.42 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 10 km/h). Conditions are expected to be favorable over the next two days for gradual intensification as the storm parallels the Mexican coastline.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14


DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The appearance of Tropical Storm Carlos has improved slightly this evening. The center of circulation is better positioned within a small yet intense central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates at 0z were T3.0/45kt from SAB and T3.5/55kt from TAFB. The latest estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT had risen to T3.3/51kt. The initial intensity is raised slightly to 50kt as a result. Water vapor animations and maps from UW-CIMSS indicate 10-15 knots of northerly shear affected Carlos. This shear should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours, so only steady intensification is expected at this time. Thereafter, the upper-level environment is forecast to become more favorable as an upper-level anticyclone builds overhead. Intensity guidance remains largely unchanged, with the SHIPS and LGEM indicating a peak of 73kt and 74kt, respectively, and the 18z HWRF indicating a peak of 82kt. Recent runs of the GFS have deepened Carlos much quicker over the next 5 days, depicting a sub-960 millibar cyclone within 72 hours. However, given the aforementioned shear, this seems bullish and is being discarded at this time. In the extended range, while shear is expected to remain low and sea surface temperatures are expected to remain adequate, mid-level dry air from the west may impede on further intensification. The official intensity forecast closely follows the previous one.

The initial motion is 338/5. Carlos has drifted more toward the northwest this evening in response to a developing weakness across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This weakness is expected to remain the dominant mechanism for steering over the next 2 days or so. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge extending from the open East Pacific into northern Mexico is expected to build further eastward, with the flow around that anticyclone forecast to direct Carlos on a west-northwest heading. All reliable guidance keeps the system over 150 miles from the coastline of Mexico, so confidence is increasing that it will indeed remain offshore. In the extended range, Carlos may pose a threat to Baja California Sur as both the GFS and ECMWF indicate; however, it should be cautioned that track forecasts can change dramatically several days out. Regardless of the exact track, the outer bands of Carlos are likely to impact popular vacation resorts along the southwestern Mexico coastline.


INIT 12/0300Z 14.6N 100.5W 50 KT 50 MPH

12HR 12/1200Z 14.9N 100.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

24HR 13/0000Z 15.1N 100.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

36HR 13/1200Z 15.3N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

48HR 14/0000Z 15.5N 101.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

72HR 15/0000Z 16.2N 102.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

96HR 16/0000Z 17.3N 104.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

120HR 17/0000Z 18.9N 106.2W 90 KT 105 MPH


$$

FORECASTER TAWX14

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