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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 27

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

SUMMARY OF 1000AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 19.4N 105.1W

ABOUT 55MI... 90KM WNW OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 KT...50 MPH...85 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 994 MB...29.36 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 8 KT...9MPH...14 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 19.4N, 105.1W, or about 55 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 90 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 mbar (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 8 knots (9 mph, 14 km/h). Carlos is expected to weaken and potnetiall dissipate within the next two days.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

After having an exposed circulation for much of the overnight hours, a new burst of convection has developed once again over the center of circulation. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB indiciate a 55kt intensity, while CIMSS-ADT indicates a much weaker 40kt intensity. An ASCAT pass from this morning showed that winds over the southern half of the storm, which lies over water, was only producing winds up to 30 knots. As a result, the current intensity for Carlos has been set at 45 knots.

It is currently difficult to pinpoint the current location of Carlos without the aid of microwave or radar imagery, and with limited visible imagery this morning. SAB and TAFB location estimates are in disagreement, with the former placing a location over land and the latter placing Carlos over water. The current WHFC position is a blend between these two and places Carlos just off the Mexican coast. Conditions are expected to be unfavorable for any additional intensification over the next few days, and thus Carlos is expected to weaken until dissipation.


INIT 17/1500Z 19.4N 105.1W 45KT 50MPH

12HR 18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W 35KT 40MPH ... NEAR LAND

24HR 12/1200Z 21.2N 106.3W 25KT 30MPH ... NEAR LAND

36HR 13/0000Z 21.6N 106.8W 15KT 20MPH ... REMNANT LOW/NEAR LAND

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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