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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 25

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

SUMMARY OF 1000AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 17.5N 104.2W

ABOUT 105MI... 170KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 987 MB...29.15 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 4 KT...5MPH...7 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 am CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 17.5N, 104.2W, or about 105 miles (170 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 987 millibars (hPa; 29.15 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 4 knots (5 mph, 7 km/h). Conditions are expected to be unfavorable for additional strengthening, and thus Carlos is expected to slowly weaken over the next two days as it passes close to the Mexican coast.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$ Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Hurricane Carlos remains an enigmatic tropical cyclone this morning. A convective burst this morning has helped to expand Carlos' size significantly since yesterday, and the center of circulation is now towards the middle of the convection as opposed to being nearly displaced as it had been earlier. Microwave imagery from a 0955z SSMI pass shows Carlos features an eyewall that is slightly open to the west, and there are some indications that this eye may become apparent on visible imagery later today. Subjective intensity estimates are T4.0/65kt between SAB and TAFB, and although recon yesterday identified a stronger system than estimates suggested, more confidence is given towards those subjective estimates as Carlos is a larger storm this morning. Thus, the intensity for Carlos this advisory conservatively remains at 65 knots, making Carlos a low-end hurricane. Without recon, however, Carlos could actually be stronger than this current intensity.

The intensity forecast for Carlos remains slightly complicated, though a large portion of the models now forecast gradual weakening from this point on. This weakening phase for Carlos is mostly a result of the dry conditions that Carlos will be moving into over the next few days, with the SHIPS intensity forecast indiciating that humidity values will drop to as low as 55% in 60 hours. The sufficiently low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures appear to be offset by the aridness of the waters off western mainland Mexico. Given recent developments, Carlos remains on the upper end of the model thinking, but still forecasts weakening before dissipation by 120 hours.

The track forecast for Carlos remains generally the same as the previous advisory, with the storm tracking west-northwest due to a subtropical ridge, and later curving northward as a result of the ridge weakening due to Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf of Mexico; motion after two days should slow dramatically as steering currents weaken.

INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 104.2W 65KT 75MPH

12HR 17/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W 65KT 75MPH

24HR 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.5W 55KT 65MPH

36HR 18/0000Z 19.4N 106.2W 40KT 45MPH

48HR 18/1200Z 20.0N 106.7W 35KT 40MPH

72HR 19/1200Z 20.6N 107.0W 25KT 30MPH

96HR 29/1200Z 21.0N 107.2W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

120HR 16/1200Z ... DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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