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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 22

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...CARLOS MAINTAINING STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 0400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 16.9N 103.1W

ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT...7 MPH...10 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 4:00 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 16.9N, 103.1W, or about 90 miles (150 km) southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds in the storm were 75 mph (120 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure was 992 millibars (inHg; 29.30 inHg), and the system was moving west at 6 knots (7 mph, 10 km/h). Carlos is expected to change little in intensity over the next day as it parallels the southwestern coast of Mexico. Steady weakening should begin thereafter.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

This afternoon Carlos appears basically the same as it has all day, a small ball of convection south of Mexico. It continues to have a ragged appearance, and convection is periodically increasing, keeping the cyclone from becoming exposed. Per reconnaissance aircraft data earlier today and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB which surprisingly still support a category one hurricane, Carlos' intensity remains set to 65 kt.

Carlos is expected to continue to endure an environment of increasingly dry air and moderate shear throughout the remainder of its life, which is expected to hinder any further intensification. Models seem to be in good agreement that this will be the case. Carlos should hold intensity with little fluctuation for the next 24 to 36 hours before succumbing to unfavorable conditions off the southwestern edge of Mexico. In about 2 to 3 days shear should increase which will help to facilitate this system's dissipation.

The storm is now travelling in a solidly western direction, which should keep it offshore, unlike previously anticipated. Model track forecasts have shifted west today but the WFHC forecast track will stay along the eastern leaf of the model spread, with adjustments for initial motion. Carlos is no longer expected to make landfall, but it will continue to skirt the coastline for the remainder of its lifetime.

INIT 15/2100Z 16.9N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

12HR 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

24HR 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

36HR 17/0600Z 18.2N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

48HR 18/1800Z 19.1N 105.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

72HR 19/1800Z 21.4N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH ... RMNT LOW/DISSIPATING

96HR 20/1800Z 22.6N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH ... RMNT LOW/DISSIPATING


$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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