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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 21

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1:05 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 1:05 PM CDT...1805 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 16.9N 102.8W

ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 1:05 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 16.9N, 102,8W, or about 85 miles (140 km) southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. The reconnaissance aircraft investigating Carlos has found that the storm has regained hurricane intensity, and maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph (120 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure was 992 millibars (inHg; 29.30 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Carlos is expected to change little in intensity over the next day as it parallels the southwestern coast of Mexico. Steady weakening should begin thereafter.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1:05 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Despite the ragged appearance on geostationary imagery, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates that Carlos has regained hurricane intensity. The plane sampled peak flight-level winds of 69 kt and peak surface winds of 67 kt; as a result, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. Moving forward, the environment for Carlos is not expected to be favorable for much, if any, additional intensification, with 10 to 15 kt of northerly wind shear, an increasingly dry airmass, and potential interaction with the southwestern Mexico coastline. The updated forecast has been raised throughout the first 24 hours to account for Carlos' upgrade to hurricane intensity, but remains largely unchanged thereafter.

INIT 15/1805Z 16.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

12HR 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

24HR 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

36HR 17/0000Z 18.4N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

48HR 18/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

72HR 19/1800Z 20.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

96HR 20/1800Z 22.7N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH

120HR 21/1800Z 23.9N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH


$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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