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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 20

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...SMALL CORE OF CARLOS PASSING SOUTH OF MICHOACAN...

SUMMARY OF 1000AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 16.9N 102.5W

ABOUT 80MI... 130KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 991 MB...29.27 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 am CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 16.9N, 102,5W, or about 80 miles (130 kilometers) southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 991 millibars (inHg; 29.15 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Carlos is expected to strengthen marginally before making landfall or making a very close pass of southwestern Mexico.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Carlos has remained an extremely small tropical cyclone throughout the morning hours, possessing only a singular central area of convection. Subjective satellite intensity estimates utilizing conventional satellite imgagery have fallen in the past six hours; at 12z SAB indicated T3.0/45kt and TAFB indicated T3.5/55kt. Microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has nearly developed a complete eyewall, which is supported by radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico. However, given that Carlos' low level circulation center became exposed as recently as 11z, coupled with a general loss of organization in convection and falling T-values, the intensity for Carlos this advisory has been set slightly lower at 55 knots.

There remains a considerable degree of spread between the computer models when it comes to the future intensity of Carlos. However, the models do agree that any strengthening at this point will likely be minimal. The largest factors in the intensity forecast will continue to be the degree of effects induced by land interaction and dry air... SHIPS is indicating that RH values will remain in the low 60%s or even drop further over the coming days, though sea surface temperatures will remain sufficient and shear values should remain low. For now, the current WHFC forecast depicts only marginal strengthening before Carlos begins to weaken... although Carlos is expected to reenter into the Pacific Ocean after hitting land, it is not expected to restrengthen there.

Model guidance has continued to shift westward with Carlos, adding on to the great number of shifts model consensus has had throughout Carlos' lifetime. Carlos is still expected to curve northward around the subtropical ridge rather than remaining on a west-northwesterly path like some models, mostly climatalogy and persistence models, anticipate. However, the degree of this curvature will determine whether or not Carlos strikes land. Given the apparent exodus of models from a landfall scenario, the track for Carlos is now once again over water, though passing very close to Puerto Vallarta, before tracking into the Gulf of California.

INIT 15/1500Z 16.9N 102.5W 55KT 65MPH

12HR 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W 60KT 70MPH

24HR 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.0W 65KT 75MPH

36HR 17/0000Z 18.4N 104.7W 50KT 60MPH ... NEAR LAND

48HR 18/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 45KT 50MPH ... NEAR LAND

72HR 19/1800Z 20.9N 105.9W 35KT 40MPH ... NEAR LAND

96HR 20/1800Z 22.7N 106.6W 25KT 30MPH ... NEAR LAND

120HR 21/1800Z 23.9N 107.8W 20KT 25MPH ... NEAR LAND


$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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