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HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 19

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...CARLOS TRAVERSING PARALLEL TO THE COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 16.9N 101.8W

ABOUT 75MI... 120KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 KT...70 MPH...110 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 988 MB...29.18 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT...8 MPH...13 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 0400 am CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 16.9N, 101.8W, or about 75 miles (120 kilometers) south of Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 988 millibars (hPa; 29.18 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 7 knots (8 mph, 13 km/h). Carlos is expected to strengthen marginally before making landfall along the coast of Colima within the next two days.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 am CDT.

$$ Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Carlos continues to have a small core as it remains south of the Mexican coastline. Infrared satellite imagery fails to show any semblance of an eye at this hour, and the storm's visual representation is degrading. An incomplete eye feature is evident on an AMSUB microwave pass at 0433z. In line with this, radar data shows a weak western eyewall. Overall the storm's organization has slightly decreased since the last advisory. 6z fixes for Dvorak indicate a storm maintaining or slightly weakening in intensity. SAB gives T4.0/65kts while TAFB gives a weakening T3.5/4.0/65kts. Based on this information, I have determined with some confidence that Carlos is now likely a tropical storm.

This time around, the intensity forecast has been toned down a little. Carlos is remaining very close to the shoreline, and is likely only to track closer. This means that interaction with dry air from land and interaction with the land itself will inhibit most potential for strengthening. Although, as Carlos is maintaining a small core, land interaction could be less than expected, and there still remains potential for marginal restrengthening before the storm skirts closer and closer to land. The official forecast includes slight strengthening in the next 12 to 24 hours with quick weakening following. With landfall afterward, Carlos is expected to swiftly dissipate as it moves inland.

Carlos appears to be tracking roughly parallel to the Mexican coastline at about 300/7. Despite a lack of model consensus, with about half expecting landfall or close land interaction, and the other half expecting the storm to continue west out to sea, the WHFC continues to elaborate upon the previous track forecast and tends toward the eastern edge of the model spread. Carlos should continue to turn more northward slowly, and will likely make landfall in around 48 hours near Manzanillo. The track should then take the storm over land for the following day or so before a potential reemergence over water, where the system is not expected to redevelop.

INIT 14/0300Z 16.9N 102.0W 60KT 70MPH

12HR 14/1800Z 17.5N 102.8W 65KT 75MPH

24HR 15/0600Z 17.8N 103.5W 60KT 70MPH

36HR 15/1800Z 18.4N 104.2W 55KT 65MPH ... APPROACHING LAND

48HR 16/0600Z 19.2N 104.6W 50KT 60MPH ... OVER LAND

72HR 17/0600Z 20.9N 105.4W 30KT 35MPH ... OVER LAND

96HR 18/0600Z 22.0N 106.2W 25KT 30MPH ... REMNANT LOW/DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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