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HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 18

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS TREADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 16.5N 101.2W

ABOUT 90MI... 145KM SW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...105 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 984 MB...29.03 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 16.5N, 101.2W, or about 90 miles (145 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 105 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 984 millibars (inHg; 29.03 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Carlos is expected to strengthen marginally before making landfall along the coast of Colima within the next two days.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.

$$ Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2015

Hurricane Carlos has maintained a steady state over the last six hours, maintaining a very compact core with likely a small area of hurricane-force winds. An eye has transiently appeared on visible imagery throughout the late-afternoon, but has failed to establish itself. Radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico as well as microwave imagery from a 2137z SSMI pass indicate that an incomplete eyewall has maintained without much growth or weakening over the past few hours, and both SAB and TAFB have estimated T4.0/65kt values for Carlos. Thus, the current intensity for Carlos is set at 65 knots. Estimates from SAB indicate pressures higher than 984 millibars, but the pressure has been kept steady this advisory due to the lack of any new developments are improvement in organization aside from a small burst of activity in the northeastern quadrant of Carlos.

The intensity forecast for Carlos remains generally the same as previously forecast. With Carlos now inching closer and closer to the Mexican landmass, intensification is expected to be marginal at best. Wind shear is finally lessening over Carlos, which may provide a window of opportunity for the hurricane to strengthen slightly. However, this is expected to be offset by land interaction with Mexico and the presence of dry air which will serve to cap and later weaken Carlos. Once Carlos makes landfall, the storm is expected to quickly deteriorate, and, barring any significant atmospheric changes or changes to Carlos' track, Carlos is expected to dissipate over southwestern Mexico.

The motion of Carlos is set to a slow 280/5 as the hurricane is now under the influence of the ridge of high pressure to its north. Although models continue to fluctuate as to whether Carlos will track slightly offshore and make landfall, the WHFC has maintained the previous track forecast, which brings curves Carlos northward as a result of curving around the periphery of the subtropical ridge, bringing the storm to a landfall on the Mexican state of Colima at around 48 hours before tracking inland, after which Carlos is expected to dissipate.

INIT 14/0300Z 16.5N 101.2W 65KT 75MPH

12HR 14/1800Z 16.9N 102.0W 65KT 75MPH

24HR 15/0600Z 17.4N 102.7W 70KT 80MPH

36HR 15/1800Z 18.0N 103.4W 70KT 80MPH ... NEAR LAND

48HR 16/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W 50KT 60MPH ... MOVING INLAND IN COLIMA

72HR 17/0600Z 20.9N 10.52W 25KT 30MPH ... OVER JALISCO

96HR 18/0600Z 22.9N 105.6W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW/DISSIPATED


$$

FORECASTER TheAustinMan

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