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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 17

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 16.4N 100.7W

ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 984 MB...28.06 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 400 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 16.4N, 100.7W, or about 65 miles (100 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 984 millibars (hPa; 28.06 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 7 mph (13 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for slight intensification prior to landfall early on Tuesday. Interests along the southwestern and western coasts should continue to monitor the progress of Carlos.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

After likely weakening to tropical storm strength throughout the morning hours, Carlos has rebounded in organization this afternoon. Relatively deep convection has been expanding in aerial coverage over the past few hours, with an eye clearly evident on visible satellite and sometimes evident on infrared satellite. Although fragile in appearance, radar out of Acapulco indicates that the inner core of Carlos has closed off. 18z satellite intensity estimates were a unanimous T4.0/65kt from both SAB and TAFB; as a result, the initial intensity is set at 65 knots.

The intensity forecast is complicated--the story of Carlos' time as a tropical cyclone so far. High-resolution sea surface temperature data indicates that the storm's slow forward motion throughout the past 48 hours upwelled cooler subsurface waters yesterday afternoon, and this is at least partially the reason it is in a much weaker state compared to 24 hours. However, now that Carlos is beginning to assume a swifter velocity, it should enter a more favorable thermodynamic environment. The northerly shear that hindered the cyclone throughout the past few days has lessened since yesterday, with signs of anticyclonic flow aloft. Both of these factors would suggest at least modest intensification before landfall. In spite of this, most hurricane and global models do not show further strengthening, and a few even weaken the storm before it moves ashore. Both geostationary satellite and radar shows an expanse of dry air lurking to the west of the system; the 18z SHIPS initialized with 700-500mb relative humidity values near 65%. This dry air is likely to at least periodically disrupt any intensification process Carlos tries to undergo. As a result, the updated forecast calls for only slight strengthening before the storm moves ashore, followed by rapid weakening once inland. The track forecast has continued to shift east since yesterday, and it appears that Carlos will not emerge back over water. Dissipation is instead forecast by the end of the period.

The initial motion is 330/6. Carlos has assumed its forecast northwesterly motion as a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico slowly intensifies. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days before turning more toward the north as the cyclone approaches the western periphery of the high. The only change has been to nudge the track a little to the right, in line with the OFCI track.

INIT  14/2100Z 15.9N 100.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  15/0600Z 16.8N 101.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  15/1800Z 17.3N 102.4W   70 KT  75 MPH

 36H  16/0600Z 17.9N 103.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  16/1800Z 18.9N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

 72H  17/1800Z 20.8N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 96H  18/1800Z 22.6N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

120H  19/1800Z 24.5N 105.9W   10 KT  15 MPH...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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