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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 16

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS COLLAPSING...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 15.8N 100.4W

ABOUT 100 MI... 180 KM S OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 986 MB...28.32 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 am CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 15.8N, 100.4W, or about 115 miles (185 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 976 millibars (hPa; 28.82 inHg), and the system was moving northeast at 4 mph (7 km/h). Carlos is expected to begin moving towards the west-northwest and maintain its intensity. The forecast track has shifted east and now shows the center of the hurricane moving ashore the southwestern coastline of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and western coasts should continue to monitor the progress of Carlos.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

Satellite images indicate that Hurricane Carlos has a ragged appearance. The eye is cooling and there is dry air getting in. Cloud tops are rapidly warming, and In addition, the outflow was shortly after the release of the previous package bending backward. Given the lopsided nature of the storm, moderate northerly wind shear is likely affecting it. As such, based on a blend of CI values from CMISS ADT and SAB, the intensity is set at 65 knots. The track forecasts remains unchanged, even though models are trending east, the 6z GFS initiation wise seemed off, showing the wrong trajectory to start. The intensity forecast has been adjusted downward to account for the recent struggles and the global model’s insistence on rapid weakening.

Initial 15.8N 100.4W 65 knts

12 hr 16.3N 100.9W 65 knts

24 hr 16.8N 101.7W 70 knts

36 hr 17.3N 102.4W 65 knts

48 hr 17.8N 103.2W 70 knts

72 hr 19.4N 104.4W 30 knts …Inland…

96 hr dissipated

$$

Forecaster YE

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