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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS STRUGGLING SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...09:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 15.8N 100.2W

ABOUT 75 MI... 120 KM S OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 KT...80 MPH...130 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 980 MB...28.94 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 15.8N, 100.2W, or about 75 miles (120 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 980 millibars (hPa; 28.94 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 9 mph (14 km/h). Carlos is expected to begin moving towards the west-northwest and maintain its intensity. The forecast track has shifted east and now shows the center of the hurricane moving ashore the southwestern coastline of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and western coasts should continue to monitor the progress of Carlos.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

Carlos' satellite representation is poor at this hour. The storm appears much more ragged than at last advisory. Since then, convection has lapsed entirely in the northwestern quadrant of the what remains of the eye. The ragged storm's center has been intermittenly covered and revealed by dry pockets of air. In the southern regions of the storm, infrared satellite imagery shows as significant decrease in convective activity, which is now limited to regions near the core of the cyclone. In the past hour, a convective burst on the north side of the eye has, at least temporarily, reinvigorated the storm, and shrouded the storm's center. SAB analyzed T4.0/65kt at 0545z but keeping in mind that Carlos is not likely to be giving up so easily, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 70 knots. Over the course of the coming hours, the storm has the potential to see further weakening as it is approaching the coastline, potentially faster than anticipated previously.

In the past hours, Carlos has been moving in a pretty solid northwesterly direction, as a result of the presence of a disturbance near the Yucatán Peninsula weakening the ridge. The storm has been tracking east of the previously anticipated track, so in this fix the forecast track is updated to reflect this. Model consensus at 06z continues to lie nearly parallel to the coastline, though there is an appearing easterly trend where a few models bring the storm into the Gulf of California. The final forecast track will follow and resemble this line of thinking, keeping on the far-eastern preiphery of model consensus. The storm is expected to track more westerly by later in the day, as the ridge to the north strengthens, holding off a landfall for at least two or three days. The storms prolonged interaction with land will keep a cap on the system's intensity in the longer term. In the short term, mid-level shear and dry continental air will likely limit any further intensification of the storm in the short term. As such, and in conjunction with intensity models, Carlos will likely not intensify further beyond its current intensity. Beyond this, as the ridge continues to strengthen, conditions could be potentially favorable for brief reintensification if the storm reemerges into the Gulf of California as it tracks a continually more western track.

Interests should note that storms are not their forecast cone or their forecast track, and their effects can be widespread and far from the center of the storm.

Initial 15.8N 100.2W 70 kts

12 hr 16.7N 101.0W 75 kts

24 hr 17.2N 102.1W 70 kts

36 hr 17.6N 102.9W 65 kts

48 hr 18.3N 103.6W 55 kts

72 hr 20.2N 104.7W 30 kts …Inland…

96 hr 21.6N 106.7W 30 kts ...Reemergence...

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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