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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 14

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE A PORTION OF THE COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 15.3N 99.6W

ABOUT 110 MI... 180 KM S OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 KT...85 MPH...140 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 976 MB...28.82 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 15.2N, 99.9W, or about 115 miles (185 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 976 millibars (hPa; 28.82 inHg), and the system was moving northeast at 4 mph (7 km/h). Carlos is expected to begin moving towards the west-northwest and gradually strengthen. The forecast track has shifted east and now shows the center of the hurricane moving ashore the southwestern coastline of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and western coasts should continue to monitor the progress of Carlos.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Visible imagery shows that moderate to light wind shear continued to impede the slowly intensifying Carlos. After steadily intensifying earlier today, the storm seems to have inherited a dry slot around 19z. For the next few hours, Dvorak IR imagery indicates that cloud tops warmed on the western semicircle and the eye cooled. Furthermore, radar imagery indicates the eye re-opened in the western semicircle. Given that convection has diminished in coverage the past few hours to the north side, wind shear is presumed to still be affecting it. A 2345z estimate from SAB gave a FT and PT of T4.5/77 knts. Since then, radar imagery indicates that the eye is trying to re-close of, if it has not done so already. However, the intensity is not elevated to 80 knts since convection on the north side is diminishing, and even 75 knts could be generous.

The track forecast once again remains as complex as rocket science. However, Carlos has been moving more east than expected so far, and as a result, much of the guidance has shifted east. The 12z ECMWF brings this system onshore between Day 3 and Day 4, while some of the American models, the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF bring it onshore even sooner. In addition, the 21z OFCI brought it onshore for the first time, even though it also has it entering the Gulf of California by Day 4.The UKMET and FIM continue to insist on a leftward track similar to Hurricane John in 2006, but this solution is considered an outlier at this time. The new forecast track is largely an update of the previous run and is similar to the 21z OFCI.

Since the core of this hurricane is a bit fragile still due to the shear, little change in intensity is expected over the new couple hours. In the longer term, wind shear is expected to fall below 10 knots, and waters are as warm as 30C. Although these indigrates would normally scream Category 4 or 5 intensity, most of the American models do not do much with this storm, especially the GFS. The GFS calls for a steady sate cyclone for another 24 to 36 hours, before peaking in 48 hours, and then weakening rapidly prior to landfall. It appears from the outside that the GFS has the storm ingesting dry air from off the continent of Mexico cause it to collapse, which seems far-fetched if and only if Carlos has a well-organized inner core. The HWRF is also quite conservative since it appears it be overdoing upwelling along its track. The new forecast calls for little strengthening in 12 hours, then steady intensification thereafter. It resembles the LGEM model the most, but is more bullish than the LGEM. Although not explicitly noted below, Carlos could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Users are reminded not to forecast on the exact track since any deviation to the left or right could results in major errors in both the timing and intensity of landfall.

Initial 15.3N 99.6W 75 knts

12 hr 16.0N 100.5W 75 knts

24 hr 16.6N 101.5W 85 knts

36 hr 17.0N 102.6W 95 knts

48 hr 17.4N 103.4W 95 knts

72 hr 19.4N 104.7W 55 knts ..Over Jalisco…

96 hr 21.0N 106.6W 45 knts…Over Gulf of California...

120 hr dissipated


$$

Forecaster YE

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