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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 13

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS FURTHER... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE COMING DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 15.2N 99.9W

ABOUT 115 MI... 185 KM S OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 KT...85 MPH...140 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 976 MB...28.82 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 400 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 15.2N, 99.9W, or about 115 miles (185 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 976 millibars (hPa; 28.82 inHg), and the system was moving northeast at 4 mph (7 km/h). Carlos is expected to begin moving towards the west-northwest and gradually strengthen. The forecast track has shifted east and now shows the center of the hurricane moving ashore the southwestern coastline of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and western coasts should continue to monitor the progress of Carlos.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Hurricane Carlos has continued to strengthen this morning. A series of microwave passes show that the inner core of the system has become much better organized, if not slightly dislocated due to the continued effects of northerly shear. In addition, an eye has become persistently visible on daytime satellite, with an intermittent eye evident in infrared imagery. I debated going 80 kt for this advisory based on its current structure; however, radar out of Acapulco shows that the inner core is having trouble completely closing off, likely due to some dry air entrainment. As such, I have raised the initial intensity to 75 kt, in line with 18z satellite estimates of T4.5/77kt from SAB and TAFB.

The initial motion is 45/3. Carlos is situated within a region of weak steering, sandwiched between a ridge over northern Mexico and a weakness across the central Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level ridge is soon forecast to build eastward, turning the hurricane on a more west-northwest track. However, this intensification of the ridge is occurring later than previously indicated, and as such Carlos is located farther northeast than originally anticipated. As such, the chances for a landfall in southwestern Mexico have increased, with most of the available model guidance indicating the storm will indeed move ashore near Manzanillo. As such, the updated forecast also shows a landfall in approximately 72 hours. In the extended range, an upper-level trough pushing into the Southwest United States should provide a weakness for the storm to turn north-northwest into, and the potential exists for a second landfall along the northeastern Mexico coastline. Medium-range details will be ironed out as time moves forward.

The intensity forecast remains as complicated as ever. Obviously, Carlos has intensified quicker than previously anticipated. The environment over the next few days is expected to remain favorable, or even become more conducive, as northerly wind shear subsides and the system remains over 29-30C sea surface temperatures. One potential limiting factor will be dry air in and near the storm; however, if Carlos can solidify an inner core, the negative effects of this factor may be mitigated. Despite Carlos's unexpected intensification, forecasts from both global and hurricane intensity models do not show much addition intensification, with the exception being the LGEM which indicates a peak of 90 kt. As aforementioned, the forecast track has shifted farther east today, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the eye of Hurricane Carlos will move ashore in approximately 72 hours. This should result in substantial weakening over the storm. After moving offshore, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a drier environment should inhibit strengthening. All considered, the updated forecast is much higher than previous packages and most model guidance, suggesting that Carlos may approach major hurricane intensity before landfall.

INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 99.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

12HR 14/0600Z 15.8N 100.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

24HR 14/1800Z 16.3N 101.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

36HR 15/0600Z 16.8N 102.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

48HR 15/1800Z 17.2N 103.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

72HR 16/1800Z 19.3N 104.9W 70 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

96HR 17/1800Z 20.9N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER

120HR 18/1800Z 22.4N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH


$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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