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Public advisoryEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 12

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1000AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 14.9N 100.1W

ABOUT 135MI... 220KM S OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 989 MB...29.21 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 am CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 1.49N, 100.1W, or about 135 miles (220 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 989 millibars (hPa; 29.21 inHg), and the system was stationary. Carlos is expected to begin moving towards the west-northwest and gradually strengthen, potentially bringing tropical storm or even hurricane conditions to some areas of the southwest Mexican coast. Interests along the southwestern and western coasts of Mexico should remain posted on Carlos.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

The overall satellite presentation of Carlos has improved over the last six hours, and it appears that Carlos is managing to finally build a compact core after being hampered by moderate wind shear. Convection is firing in all sides of Carlos, including to the storm's north against the direction of wind shear. However, Carlos has also developed a massive rainband to its east that may act to sap some of the atmospheric energy away from the core of the tropical cyclone. Microwave imagery from an 0810z AMSR pass showed a developing eyewall and a primitive eye, and radar images from Acapulco, Mexico indicate that Carlos' eyewall is close to fully enclosing the center of the storm. Both SAB and TAFB indicate T4.0/65kt, and as a result Carlos has been upgraded to a hurricane, making it the third consecutive hurricane of this year's North Pacific hurricane season.

The proximity of the Mexican landmass as a sticking point in intensity forecasts for Carlos has once again returned as models have once again shifted closer to the Mexican coast, with some models like the ECMWF indicating a landfall at some point. In any case, the ridge centered north of Carlos is expected to strengthen, which will steer Carlos towards the west-northwest over the next 72 hours before Carlos begins to move northwest as a result of a developing weakness within the ridge. The degree of these parameters remains uncertain, and will be the deciding factor in whether or not Carlos makes landfall on southwestern Mexico.

The WHFC forecast track lies close to the consensus of the model tracks, which brings Carlos close to the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco, before curving towards the northwest, which could bring the Mexican states along the Gulf of California into the discussion. Despite the persistent shear, rapid intensification is still in the picture, with SHIPS still indicating a 31% chance of a 25 knot rapid intensification phase. Nonetheless, the presence of wind shear is expected to keep any current intensification gradual. The most optimal window for strengthening appears to be wtihin the 12-48 hour timeframe as wind shear abates. However, this coincides with the environment becoming less moist, which could hamper intensification alongside proximity to land. The WHFC intensity forecast remains on the upper end of the models.

INIT 13/1500Z 15.2N 100.4W 65KT

12HR 14/0600Z 15.2N 100.4W 65KT

24HR 14/1800Z 15.6N 100.9W 70KT

36HR 15/0600Z 15.8N 101.3W 75KT

48HR 15/1800Z 16.2N 102.0W 75KT

72HR 16/1800Z 17.7N 104.3W 70KT

96HR 17/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W 60KT

120HR 18/1800Z 22.7N 107.7W 55KT


$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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