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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 10

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...CARLOS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND STILL STATIONARY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 14.7N 100.4W

ABOUT 155 MI... 250 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 14.7N, 100.4W, or about 155 miles (250 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 millibars (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system was stationary. Environmental conditions are expected to inhibit significant strengthening over the next day but may become more favorable for a brief period of time thereafter. Residents along the coastline of southwestern Mexico are urged to monitor the progress of the cyclone.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Tropical Storm Carlos has intensified slightly this afternoon. Although 0z satellite intensity estimates were an unchanged T3.0/45kt from SAB and T3.5/55kt from TAFB, long-range radar out of Acapulco indicates the presence of an eye that is open to the north. As such, the initial intensity is raised to 55kt, just below the recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.7/59kt.

The intensity forecast is just as, if not even more, complicated as this time last evening. The cyclone continues to feel the effects of moderate to strong northerly wind shear, acting to push a majority of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity south of the center. In addition, water vapor imagery shows a large expanse of dry air drifting southward toward the storm. Now that Carlos has remained nearly stationary for the better part of the last 24 hours, ocean-coupled models such as the HWRF are beginning to suggest that upwelling may become an issue for Carlos as it was for Blanca before it. In 24 to 36 hours, the upper-level environment is forecast to become favorable as shear drops below 10 knots, suggesting that intensification will be possible if Carlos can solidify an inner core against an increasingly dry environment. The intensity forecast is further complicated this evening by an eastward shift in hurricane and global models, which may allow land interaction to become another limiting factor. All things considered, the updated forecast calls for little change in strength over the next 24-36 hours, followed by some intensification between 36 and 72 hours, followed by steady weakening thereafter. If the center moves ashore, more significant weakening (and possibly dissipation) would occur.

As aforementioned, there have been some changes with regard to the potential track of Tropical Storm Carlos. The GFS and HWRF, which were previous well offshore the coastline of southwestern Mexico, now bring the ashore north of Manzanillo in approximately 96 hours. A majority of the statistical and dynamical hurricane models, as well as the ECMWF, still keep the center of the system offshore, albeit barely. As a result, I have shifted the track forecast east to account for these changes, very near the TVCN consensus model. The overall setup for steering remains unchanged: Carlos is expected to remain generally stationary over the next 24 hours or so as it feels the effects of a weakness across the northern Gulf of Mexico; thereafter, a ridge from the open East Pacific into northern Mexico is expected to build eastward and force the cyclone on a west-northwest trajectory. By the end of the period, a weakness across the Southwest United States may provide a gateway for Carlos to move northwest toward.

INIT 13/0300Z 14.7N 100.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

12HR 13/1200Z 14.9N 100.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

24HR 14/0000Z 15,4N 100.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

36HR 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

48HR 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

72HR 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

96HR 17/0000Z 19.6N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

120HR 18/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH



$$ Forecaster TAWX14

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