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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 1

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING WIKIA

400PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...12.3N 98.7W

ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 7 KT...8 MPH...13 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 400 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located at 12.3N 98.7W, or about 325 miles (525 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1004 mb (hPa; 29.65 inHg), and the system was moving northward at 7 knots (8 mph; 13 km/h). Atmospheric conditions are favorable for further intensification, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm this evening or tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING WIKIA

400PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined area of low pressure has become much better organized since this time yesterday. Visible satellite imagery reveals numerous spiral bands associated with the system...and expanding upper-level outflow in all four quadrants. 18z satellite intensity estimates were T1.0/25kt and T2.0/30kt from TAFB. Given the current appearance of the system, more weight is being placed on the TAFB estimate, and the initial intensity is set to 30kt as a result. Over the coming days, atmospheric conditions are expected to be generally favorable for intensification, with low to moderate vertical wind shear, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures. In fact, the 18z SHIPS is indicating greater than a 6-in-10 chance for a 25kt increase in winds over the next day. The official intensity forecast takes into account forecasts from the LGEM, SHIPS, and HWRF, indicating the depression to be near hurricane intensity in 48 hours. Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by the steering regime and how much the system interacts with Mexico. As such, this is a low-confidence forecast, especially in the extended range.

The depression is drifting slowly northward this afternoon. With a break between two mid-level ridges over the West Atlantic and Southwest United States, this motion is expected to continue for the next 2 days or so. Thereafter, the ridge northwest of the cyclone should build slowly eastward, forcing it to take on more of a west-northwest motion. The strength of this ridge will dictate whether or not the system makes landfall along the southwestern Mexico coastline. Model guidance is split, with the HWRF predicting the center to move ashore the coastline, the GFS indicating the center to pass very close to the coast, the ECMWF forecasting the center to pass safely offshore. For now, the forecast will indicate a turn just offshore the coastline of Mexico, but this is definitely subject to change. Regardless of the exact track, heavy rainfall and gusty winds should impact popular vacation resorts along the Mexico coastline, including Acapulco. Residents along the shore are urged to monitor the progress of this system closely.

INIT 10/2100Z 12.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

12HR 11/0600Z 12.9N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

24HR 11/1800Z 13.3N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

36HR 12/0600Z 13.9N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

48HR 12/1800Z 14.4N 99.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

72HR 13/1800Z 15.4N 99.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

96HR 14/1800Z 16.5N 101.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

120HR 15/1800Z 17.6N 104.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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