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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

5:00 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 5:00 PM HST... 03:00 UTC... INFORMATION

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LOCATION...8.1N 166.7W

CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: FAIR

ABOUT 1,085 MI...1,745 KM SW OF HONOLULU, HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 3 KT...3 MPH...5 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 5:00 pm HST, the center of Tropical Depression One-C was located near 8.1N, 166.7W, about 1,085 miles (1,745 km) southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), the minimum barometric pressure was 1005 millibars (29.68 inHg), and the cyclone was moving northwest at 3 knots (3 mph, 5 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to be a little more conducive for slow development over the next 48 hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 11:00 pm HST.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

5:00 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

Tropical Depression One-C remains a decent looking tropical cyclone. A new burst of deep correction has developed near the center, although the overall shower activity remains limited. The circulation is becoming more defined and the structure is a bit better and closer to the center. The banding features are also wrapping a decent amount around the center. Intensity estimates from WFHC are at T2.0 while estimates from CPHC are at T1.5. The intensity remains 30 knots.

One-C has been traveling quite slowly this morning due to the weak steering currents it currently lies within. Currently, the dominant steering force appears to be a mid-level disturbance centered northeast of the Hawaiian islands, which is helping to induce a weakness in the subtropical ridge, causing One-C to track northwestward. As this disturbance moves westward, the subtropical ridge should restrengthen and override the northwesterly motion, inducing a more westerly motion after about two days and through the end of the WHFC forecast range. In all, the track forecast has not changed.

The depression is in a so so environment right now. Wind shear is moderate and the ocean is warm and OHC are higher than normal. Henceforth, slow deepening is expected over the next day or so. After day 2, wind shear could relax, so a faster rate of deepening is expected.

INIT 08/0300Z 8.1N 166.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 08/1200Z 8.8N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 09/0000Z 9.3N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 09/1200Z 10.3N 169.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 10/0000Z 10.7N 169.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

72H 11/0000Z 11.2N 171.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 12/0000Z 12.1N 174.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

120H 13/0000Z 13.7N 178.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

Forecaster YE

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