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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

SUMMARY OF 0400AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 31.3N 97.2W

ABOUT 60MI... 95KM NNE OF AUSTIN, TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 15 KT...18MPH...28 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 0400 am CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was located at 31.3N, 97.2W, or about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of Austin, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1000 millibars (hPa; 29.53 inHg), and the system was moving towards the north at 15 knots (18 mph, 28 km/h). Bill is expected to curve around a subtropical ridge and slowly weaken over the next two days, passing near the Dallas-Forth Worth metropolitan area before curving eastward towards the Ozarks.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

Bill has been downgraded to a tropical depression this morning as the overall storm structure is beginning to change with convection mainly displaced to the north of the center and curving out east. Radar data indicate the storm's structure is beginning to appear slightly more like an extratropical system as the storm traverses further inland and its core restructures. As a result, Bill's intensity is now 30 knots.

There is a very solid model consensus on the future track of Bill over the United States, and this forecast continues to follow it. Bill is expected to travel north into Oklahoma in around 18 hours before it begins a recurve to the east around the subtropical ridge. Models continue to indicate that Bill's intensity will decrease relatively slowly throughout the rest of its life. Overally, only slight changes have been made to the current forecast track and intensity aside from adjustments based on a more rapid forward motion since the last advisory.

INIT 17/0900Z 31.3N 97.2W 30KT 35MPH

12HR 17/1800Z 32.8N 97.4W 25KT 30MPH

24HR 18/0600Z 34.5N 96.7W 25KT 30MPH

36HR 18/1800Z 36.7N 95.5W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

48HR 19/0600Z 37.3N 93.7W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

72HR 20/0600Z 38.5N 89.4W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

96HR 21/0600Z 41.2N 80.0W 15KT 20MPH ... REMNANT LOW

120HR 22/0600Z ... MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

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